Predictions

The early voting numbers are about to come in, and I'm about to head out to make it to my precinct convention. That unfortunately means that I'll be away from my computer for a bit. Darn!

Predictions are a difficult thing; generally, the smaller the race, the harder. I haven't seen any poll data that I'd feel comfortable relying on this race, so it's solely on intuition.

With that said, my guess is that DeLay will win tonight with somewhere around 55% of the vote. Given that Mike Fjetland took 20% of the vote against DeLay in 2002, I would assume that the combination of indictment and a credible challenger will at least double that vote. Add a few anti-DeLay points for Democrats voting in the primary (yes, I do think it is probably worth a few points), and that's where I come up with 55%.

So my guess would be something like DeLay 55%, Campbell 30%, Baig 10%, and Fjetland 5%. But who knows? I could be terribly wrong, and not living in the district doesn't help provide any anecdotal evidence.

UPDATE: Very, very quick recap of what I missed blogging about over the last week due to time constraints.

Campbell was endorsed by the Houston Chronicle and the Fort Bend Star. Neither is a surprise at all (I believe DeLay did not show for the Chronicle editorial board), but certainly helped solidify his stake as the credible non-DeLay candidate.

DeLay spent the morning in the district, before flying to DC this afternoon for votes. According to the Chron, he'll spend election night with former GOP Congressmen and now-lobbyists Bill Paxon and Susan Molinari at a fundraiser. Meanwhile, some filmmakers release a film about Texas redistricting today.


Edit: Fixed numbers to make them add up to 100%.