Tom Delay vs. the World

2010-03-27T15:06:00.000-07:00

DeLay also got alot of flak recently for agreeing that people are unemployed because they want to be.

He was probably referring to a study that showed a strong link between expiration of unemployment benefits and when people get jobs. Even so, it's not exactly DeLay's style to avoid letting people make the headline.

Edit: I accidentally irreparably damaged the old design template for this blog, so it's just gonna stay like it is now, I think.

Delay now

2010-03-26T09:20:00.000-07:00

Since I see people occasionally finding this little corner of the internet on google searches, a quick post.

DeLay wrote a book called No Surrender, then went on Dancing with the Stars. Now he gives speeches and does consulting work out of First Principles.

It's the end of the road, still I can't let go*

2006-08-03T13:56:00.000-07:00

I just read the Tom DeLay replacement opinon by the 5th Circuit panel. This was a pretty big judicial smackdown.

The panel affirmed on both the constitutional question AND the "alternative state law ground". Moreover, the review was de novo, meaning that the court didn't have to defer to the trial judge's opinion. There was a low standard of review, and they still decided on two different grounds that DeLay would have to be on the ballot.

The smackdown is so clear that it is likely to be the end of the judicial road. The Texas GOP will still file some papers (that's the second half of the post title but you'd already figured that out), but I doubt they'll be effective. The best chance for the GOP would be to focus on standing -- in fact, given the "alternative state law ground", standing is probably the only possible issue to appeal to the Supreme Court -- but the opinion goes to great lengths to establish standing on multiple grounds. An en banc hearing is possible, but seems awfully unlikely, given the unanimity of this opinion.

I'd say that it's now 99% likely that Tom DeLay will be on the ballot in November, unless he withdraws and leaves Nick Lampson without a Republican opponent. But that seems unlikely.

* People of my age will recognize this as lyric from the worst song played as the last slow dance at high school dances.

TRO lifted, hearing Monday

2006-06-24T15:21:00.000-07:00

The temporary order which prohibited the Texas GOP from going forward with their DeLay replacement plans has been lifted. There's supposed to be a trial on Monday in front of federal judge Sam Sparks.

I'd be very surprised if Democrats win. DeLay might've been circumventing the spirit of the law, but he certainly appears to be within the letter of the law. Combine that with the fact that courts historically tend to rule in favor of electoral choice, and I'd expect a GOP win. Also, the expedited process would tend to favor the GOP.

Stockman not on the ballot

2006-06-22T17:45:00.000-07:00

Here's the Chron's Clay Robison:

Former congressman Steve Stockman, however, failed to qualify as an independent candidate for the 22nd Congressional District seat vacated by former U.S. Rep. Tom DeLay of Sugar Land.

Stockman turned in about 600 signatures, but fewer than the 500 he needed were ruled valid, Williams' spokesman, Scott Haywood said.

The Legend of Steve Stockman continues to grow.

Is Lampson still planning to run against DeLay?

2006-05-22T09:34:00.000-07:00

DMN:

Mr. Lampson said Mr. DeLay's ethical miscues are well-known to voters in the district, which includes portions of Harris, Brazos, Galveston and Fort Bend counties.

"I don't have to go out and remind them," he said. "It's ingrained in a lot of these people in this district, and it will resonate."

At the same time, Lampson campaign manager Mike Malaise said, don't be surprised if the campaign runs TV ads this fall featuring Mr. DeLay.

It's probably possible to make this part of a compelling narrative*, but may be tricky to pull off.

*As I've said before, media campaigns need to be viewed in the larger context of the race. There's no opponent yet, so it's awfully hard to judge.

The blog is back.

2006-05-11T16:27:00.000-07:00

I'll be blogging again sometime this weekend. There's been lots of interesting things going on in the race to replace Tom DeLay.

Check out Safety for Dummies

2006-05-04T10:18:00.000-07:00

The best coverage of the CD22 race is definitely over at ~~Safety for Dummies~~ the Texas Safety Forum.

Burka/Texas Monthly on DeLay

2006-04-18T21:16:00.000-07:00

The May issue of Texas Monthly features a Tom DeLay cover story by Paul Burka.

I haven't read it yet. I'm extremely busy between a number of different things, so you may or may not get my thoughts on the piece. I barely have time to eat and sleep.

CD22 special election poll?

2006-04-08T17:16:00.000-07:00

Greg in TX22 reports that someone is doing an autodialer poll in the district with these questions:

1. Do you favor a special election to fill Tom DeLay's remaining term?
2. How likely would you be to vote in a special election?
3. Which political party do you identify with?
4. Which race are you?

HIs wife is uncertain who is doing the poll, but thinks it was a Republican party poll.

Rank speculation (hey, I'm a blogger!): maybe it was an NRCC poll to make sure that holding a special won't be a problem within the district?

No special election

2006-04-08T13:21:00.000-07:00

Not too surprisingly, Governor Perry decided that he won't call a special election before the regular November election once DeLay resigns. That means that the November ballot in CD22 will feature two elections: the special election and the regular election.

Here's an interesting scenario: assuming the Republican nominee wins the November election, but the special election goes into a runoff. Will the state have to spend a few million holding a special election runoff even though only it would only be weeks or days left in the unexpired term. Even if the state doesn't have to hold a special runoff**, mightn't it be a good idea to hold a special election? Whoever wins the special election will be ahead in seniority of the entire 2006 freshman class. That extra seniority could easily be worth a few million to Texas and CD22 over a congressional tenure.

**My guess is that the state is required to hold a runoff for the special election, even if it means rushing the runoff. However, it's not important enough for me to spend time researching the law.

Lampson's chances, redux

2006-04-08T13:10:00.000-07:00

The loudest sound in Washington this week was the huge sigh from [GOP] officials relieved that their chances of holding Tom DeLay's [seat] have improved from, at best, 50-50 to more like 90-10.

Four days ago on Tuesday, I wrote:

But right now I'd say the odds of the GOP holding the seat at about 10:1. In other words, there's a 9% chance that Lampson holds this seat next January.

I'll forgive Cook for rounding up.

Despite the levity in my self-congratulation, I thought it was worth passing along.

Elam on the nomination process

2006-04-06T13:31:00.000-07:00

The word I'm hearing is that it's likely that party leaders will try to nominate a candidate before a special election is held.

Chris Elam provides some thoughts (I'll excerpt here, but go read the posts):

In CD 22, there are exactly 100 precincts including a couple that are there just for administrative reasons but contain no voters.

Of those 100 precincts, 60 currently have a GOP precinct chair, two will have a GOP precinct chair after next week's runoff, and 38 precincts do not have a precinct chair.

...

Somebody who is interested in knowing how these precinct chairs are leaning, might be inclined to do an informal survey. Or, calling Eric Thode and having a meeting to discuss them all individually so they can have an informed start to their targeting and courtship. Or, more than likely, poring through the voter rolls in the precincts without chairmen, looking for GOP voters with publicly listed telephone numbers to call up and beg them into being appointed and serving... and then taking them to dinner.

...

Do only the precinct chairs in CD 22 get to vote, or will precinct chairs in other CD's get a voice?

Do the candidates get to come in and speak durng the meeting?

Are the precinct chairs who want to be selected, required to declare and sign their allegiance to one candidate in blood?

Are the meetings going to be formed in the fashion of a debate on the merits of the Congressional candidates, or the merits of the precinct chairs who will be part of the four-member board?

And most importantly...

Will the meetings be open to the general public, or just to Republican primary voters, or will they be completely closed to observers and REALLY emit the stench of back-room dealing? You'd think that they'd have to rent the FBISD football stadium in order to deal with the crowd if these meetings are going to be open to the public.

I can answer one question. Only precinct chairs within CD22 will get to vote on who represents them on the 4 person committee ("one precinct chair from each county that is only partly situated in the district, elected by and from among the precinct chairs of the precincts in that part of the county.")

If you were on a Congressional campaign, you would obviously be looking to fill vacant precinct chairs with supporters. So look for that to happen. Of course, how will that be done? It's uncertain.

It's uncertain because it appears that the statute ATTEMPTS to provide a mechanism for filling vacant precinct chairs, but fails to do so. That is, the rules for the replacing DeLay are in Tex. Elec. Code Sec. 171.054. Subsection (c) of that code provides that:

If a vacancy exists in the office of precinct chair on a senatorial district executive committee immediately before the date for conducting the regular drawing for a place on the general primary ballot, the appropriate precinct chairs shall convene on that date at the hour and place specified by the county chair to elect that officer. (emphasis mine)

I haven't checked the statute history, but it appears that this is just sloppy drafting. It appears that the statute drafters intended this subsection to apply, however, they accidentally left in "senatorial," and thus it literally does not apply in this case.

So, it looks like the county party chairs will have some latitude (based on the rules in their county for how precinct chairs are appointed) in stacking the deck in favor of certain CD22 candidates. And even if subsection (c) were found to apply (if anyone even bothered to sue)

One question of my own: this will be a four person committee. What happens if the committee deadlocks 2-2 (or 1-1-1-1, thus giving ONE person the power to decide CD22's next Congressman (technically only the Republican nominee, but that nominee is pretty likely to win))?

Folks, this is political theater at its best.

Why nominating before a special COULD be a good thing

2006-04-06T12:51:00.000-07:00

I'm going to reproduce -- with some editing -- my comment on GreginTX22's site:

First, let me note that I don't really have a dog on this fight. I can see the arguments for having a special election -- particularly the importance of having voters decide -- rather than having the party nominate a candidate.

As I've suggested on my blog, a special election is more likely to be won by Lampson. Although I saw that Lampson says he may not run in a special, I think he would be quite foolish to do so. Generally, Lampson has a much better chance of winning the special than the general, because low turnout elections such as special elections are significantly less predictable. Plus, if Lampson wins the special, then he increases his chances of winning the general. Though there are some reasons why he might not want to run in the special, I think those are outweighed by reasons to run in the special.

Also, a special election *appears* to be more likely won by a Harris County resident. I think that it makes sense that Fort Bend wants to keep a hometown Congressman rather than have another Congressman from Harris (note: I was born and live in Harris County).

There's also the idea that the party wants to be able to pick its own nominee. In a special, the party is not picking its own nominee. Both Republican, Democrats and independent voters from an entire district are deciding the de facto nominee. In fact, there is no Republican nominee in a special. Because of this, it means that a candidate with a large, solid base could be the de facto Republican nominee, despite the fact that most Republicans wouldn't vote for that person (eg, in a Lampson v. 7 Republicans special election, one Republican could be in a runoff with Lampson by winning only 20% of the vote.)

Further -- and I'm not saying that this is true**, but that it's valid for them to believe so -- I think folks in the party believe that they can do the best job of picking a solid Republican who has no chance of being beaten by Nick Lampson in November.

So, I think there are some arguments on the other side that aren't merely selfish back-room motives.

** In fact, you could argue that a special election is the best way to ensure that the party doesn't get someone with skeletons in the closet that could be exposed by Lampson.

When to nominate.

2006-04-05T14:10:00.000-07:00

This intra-Republican struggle on whether to nominate before a special could get interesting.

Outgoing Fort Bend County GOP Chair Eric Thode (he's done May 1st, if I recall correctly) is
arguing that the Republican party should decide who to nominate, and not worry about the special election.

The most important part of this process is the WITHDRAWAL from the November ballot. As a Party, each of the Executive Committees in each of the four counties (Fort Bend, Harris, Brazoria and Galveston) in Congressional District 22 will choose a single Precinct Chair to represent them at a 4-person selection committee meeting. These 4 people will choose the individual to appear on the November ballot. Needless to say, many people will pursue this appointment and this individual will carry the Republican flag to victory against Nick Lampson in November.

We must not allow ourselves to get sidetracked by a Special Election that will slow our November candidate down unnecessarily. Every Republican should push the appointment along quickly and not wait for a Special Election, which is NOT the way we should choose the Republican nominee for November.

I recommend that you go read Thode's whole email (and comment) over at Texas Safety Forum. Remember, if you're curious as to how the Republican Party will pick DeLay's replacement, I covered that here. Barg: I was the first to get the law right on this one, while local and national media were getting the law wrong.

Meanwhile DeLay primary challenger Tom Campbell disagrees, and sent out a press release saying:

"The special election should be held first and Republican leaders should then select a nominee for the November election informed by the results of the special election. The selection process should be open, transparent and democratic. We need to avoid any appearance of selection by backroom bargain."

This is a pretty interesting situation. Couple of different scenarios could happen:

Scenario A: Party nominates November replacement before special election. Only the replacement runs in the special election, since there is no point for anyone else to run.

Scenario B: Party nominates November replacement before special election, but other Republicans decide to run in the special anyway (out of spite OR because the filing deadline for the special has passed.)

Scenario C: Party waits to see results of the special before nominating a replacement. A Republican beats Lampson in the special election runoff. The party nominates someone else, because they don't like the victorious "special" Republican.

Scenario D: Party waits to see results of the special before nominating a replacement. A Republican loses to Lampson in the special election runoff (possible, because Lampson has a better chance in a runoff). The party nominates someone else, because they don't like that Republican lost.

Scenario E: Party waits to see results of the special before nominating a replacement. A Republican loses to Lampson in the special election runoff (possible, because Lampson has a better chance in a runoff). The party nominates the same person.

Scenario F: Party waits to see results of the special before nominating a replacement. A Republican beats Lampson in the special election runoff. The party nominates the same person.

Scenario G: Party waits to see results of the special before nominating a replacement. A Republican beats Lampson in the special election runoff. The party nominates someone else.

Scenario H: Party nominates replacement after filing deadline for the special but before the special. Then, we could end up with someone who faces Lampson in a special runoff, but has no incentive to campaign, since they won't be on the November ballot.

Different folks' perspectives:
Campbell wants a special election, because there is no way that the party will nominate him, given the way the nomination will take place.

Fort Bend County politicos would probably prefer a nomination before the special, because there are likely to be several candidates from Fort Bend in a special election. This means that someone from Harris County like Judge Eckels (who doesn't really have any ties to the district) could end up winning a special election.

Converse to Fort Bend folks, Harris folks would probably prefer a special election first, since there are likely to be less candidates from Harris in a special.

Democrats would just prefer that things be as messy as possible, as divisive as possible, and that there be a weak nominee who gets less than strong support.

Side points about the nomination:

1. Geography will be very important here. Fort Bend would definitely like to keep a hometown Congressman. However, there are just as many CD22 voters in Harris County as their are in Fort Bend.

2. The Congressman is very likely to be from Fort Bend or Harris, and much less likely to be from Brazoria or Galveston.

3. The committee will be equally represented by each county: one person each.

4. Therefore, Brazoria and Galveston will have disproportionate power (relative to their percentages of the district) in determining who the next Congressman is and where he/she comes from.

Is a special election or a nomination better for the Republicans? I don't think it matters too much, as long as the nominee is credible and the party is united. However, I do think it will look bad if we have different Republicans on the special runoff and the November ballot.

Avoiding litigation through legislation

2006-04-04T16:36:00.000-07:00

If there is any ambiguity over whether the GOP can replace DeLay on the ballot in November, won't the state legislature simply rewrite/clarify the election code in the upcoming special session in a few weeks?

It's pretty likely that this will be litigated, and equally likely that the GOP will be allowed to replace DeLay on the ballot. So perhaps the legislature will attempt to change the code.

Janek not running

2006-04-04T14:47:00.000-07:00

FortBendNow reports that Janek says he isn't running.

If the race is three Fort Bend County residents Campbell, Wallace, and Howard, then you have to think that someone from Harris County would think about running.

Charlie Howard is in

2006-04-04T14:15:00.000-07:00

According to Elam, Sugar Land state Rep. Charlie Howard is running.

Howard plays well with the grassroots (an activist friend of mine once said to me a few years back, "if the whole Texas House was as good as Charlie Howard...") and has some money in his campaign account.

In other words, I think Howard will be a serious candidate who has a good chance, depending on who else enters.

Another loose end

2006-04-04T12:00:00.000-07:00

The reason that DeLay is moving to Virginia is because that's necessary for Republicans to replace him on the ballot.

People seem to be confused as to why DeLay is moving.

DeLay can be replaced

2006-04-04T11:19:00.000-07:00

It was never in question to me whether DeLay could be replaced on the November ballot, which is why I've focused on how that replacement will be chosen. Election law guru Rick Hasen spells out why here: http://electionlawblog.org/archives/005318.html

Lampson's chances

2006-04-04T10:42:00.000-07:00

The big loser in all of this is Nick Lampson. He's a pretty solid underdog to any credible Republican candidate.

Lampson lost 43%-56% in 2004 to Ted Poe in a slightly more Republican district. That was a district that included his long-time home of Beaumont. Lampson had to move into his aunt's house to live in this district, and despite the fact that he's been campaigning for the last year, his ties to the district are not nearly as strong as they were

This is a solidly Republican district. Peg it conservatively at 60% [it's actually more like 62-63% GOP], and you're behind by 20% already if you're Lampson.

On the plus side for Lampson...he will have money. He's already got a couple million in the bank. But raising money won't be a problem for any Republican. The national spotlight will be on this district, and dollars accompany the spotlight. A Cheney or Bush fundraiser would be expected.

2006 is a more favorable year for Democrats, you might say. This might be true, but it won't matter in this district. Plus it's still too early to say whether 2006 will be a good climate for Dems. Remember prognostications that 2004 and 2002 would be good for Democrats. In 2002, it was Enron, corporate scandals, economy. In 04, it was the war and economy.

Lampson has had more time to put together a grassroots organization, and the Republican nominee may only have a short period of time to campaign. But right now I'd say the odds of the GOP holding the seat at about 10:1. In other words, there's a 9% chance that Lampson holds this seat next January. Most of that 9% hinges on Republicans nominating a flawed candidate for the November ballot.

Nomination Machinery

2006-04-03T22:45:00.000-07:00

Depending on when Congressman DeLay resigns and when Governor Perry calls the special election, potentially (though unlikely, as both would probably choose dates so that an election would happen first) the GOP nominee for November could be picked before the special election is held. Or, it's also possible that the district precinct chairs might decide that they don't like whoever wins the special election, and decide to nominate someone else to face Nick Lampson in November.

Here is a more thorough explanation of the process.

Full text of the statute:

Section 171.054. Committee Composition: District Situated in More Than One County; First Meeting

(a) The district executive committee for a district situated in more than one county consists of:

(1) the county chair of each county that is wholly situated in the district; and

(2) one precinct chair from each county that is only partly situated in the district, elected by and from among the precinct chairs of the precincts in that part of the county.

(b) Except as provided by Subsection (c), the county chair shall call a meeting to convene at any time after the precinct chairs take office to elect the precinct chair who is to serve on a district executive committee. The county chair shall notify the appropriate precinct chairs in advance of the meeting of its time, place, and purpose. Not later than the third day after the date the district executive committee member is elected, the county chair shall deliver to the state chair written notice of the name and address of the person elected.

(c) If a vacancy exists in the office of precinct chair on a senatorial district executive committee immediately before the date for conducting the regular drawing for a place on the general primary ballot, the appropriate precinct chairs shall convene on that date at the hour and place specified by the county chair to elect that officer.

(d) The members of a district executive committee shall elect a chair at the committee's first meeting from among the committee membership.

(e) The state chair shall call the first meeting of the district executive committee and shall notify each committee member in advance of the meeting of its time, place, and purpose.

Tex. Elec. Code Sec. 171.054.

I assume that wholly situated means that every member of that county is within the district. That isn't the case here. Therefore, the GOP nominee will be determined by the following process:

1. The GOP County Chair in Harris, Fort Bend, Galveston and Brazoria will call a meeting of the precinct chairs of that district.
2. Each county's precinct chairs will elect one precinct chair
3. Those four precinct chairs (one each from Fort Bend, Harris, Brazoria, and Galveston) will meet and determine who represents the GOP on the ballot in November against Nick Lampson.
4. If this process is not followed, then the state GOP committee (SREC) will decide on the nominee.

I'm fairly confident in that legal analysis (standard disclaimers apply: I'm not a lawyer, I'm not your lawyer, I barely even play a lawyer on TV), but it was very quickly done and I'm not an expert in the field. There are more angles I'd check if I were doing it for real. Moreover, I was up all night working on a brief on criminal confession in Texas. I was too tired to think about four hours ago. And then tonight I ended up analyzing election law. Could my life be any more exciting?

Also, memo to Texas legislators: that election code could be much clearer. I could be available in the next general session to help fix that. Heh.

It all depends on DeLay

2006-04-03T22:26:00.000-07:00

The race to be DeLay's successor all depends on DeLay.

Obviously, the date of the race will affect who can win it. For example, DeLay probably doesn't want Tom Campbell to take his seat. Campbell's likelihood of winning decreases the longer the wait until a special, because his advantage right now is fresh name ID. In a longer campaign, that advantage decreases. [Edit to note that Campbell would not be considered the frontrunner at this point in time, so don't construe my words that way.]

If DeLay resigns at certain times, then it might make it difficult for some candidates to run, especially some state legislators.

So who jumps in this race will in some ways depend on when DeLay announces that he will resign. DeLay will probably feel some pressure to let people know when they can expect a resignation.

In the next few days, we'll know lots more about how this race will shape up.

(Also, if you've been coming to this page, I've been updating the posts below.)

Special first, then November replacement

2006-04-03T21:32:00.000-07:00

If DeLay resigns from Congress, then a special election will be held. At this point, it looks like the candidates will be:

David Wallace
Steve Stockman
Nick Lampson
Tom Campbell

They will all run against each other. If no candidates gets over 50%, then the top 2 will go to a runoff. That winner will be Congressman until January. In January, whoever wins the November election (probably, but not necessarily the same person) will be the Congressman.

With a crowded field, it's unlikely that anyone else will run who has a chance of winning. The only person who I could see considering it right now would be state Sen. Kyle Janek, but my guess is that he will pass. I could definitely be wrong, that's my very first guess. So there's a reasonable probability that this will be the field. But again, that's just an initial guess.

[UPDATE: Elam thinks that this race could get very crowded indeed. He might be right.]

Presumably, if the special election winner is a Republican (which is very likely) then the party will make the special election winner the nominee.

This is not necessarily so, however. It's possible although unlikely that the Republican party might choose someone else to run against Lampson in November. Republicans will choose the November nominee by

1) the county chair of each county that is wholly situated in the
district; and

(2) one precinct chair from each county that is only partly situated in
the district, elected by and from among the precinct chairs of the
precincts in that part of the county.

See Texas Election Code Section 145.038. In other words, either Kronberg or Wallace got the law wrong. But they were close.

However, if the district executive committee fails to nominate someone, then the state executive committee (SREC) will choose the Republican nominee who will face Nick Lampson in November. Texas Election Code Section 171.054.

UPDATE: Elam reports that Fort Bend County GOP Chair Eric Thode is saying that DeLay isn't planning on resigning for awhile. Conceivably, if DeLay resigns late enough, both the special election and the general election could be held on the regular election date.

My guess is that there will be a special election before June. But we'll see in the next few days.

Note: I intended to be asleep a few hours ago, so if I don't make sense, you'll know why.

Possible candidates

2006-04-03T21:07:00.000-07:00

Chris lists
state Sen. Kyle Janek
Sugar Land Mayor David Wallace
Tom Campbell

Random names that might think about it:
state Rep. Charlie Howard
newly elected state Sen. Glenn Hegar?
Ben Streusand
Eric Thode
state Rep. Larry Taylor from Friendswood?
Fort Bend Commissioner Andy Meyers
Land Commissioner Jerry Patterson?
Fort Bend County Judge Bob Hebert

Chronicle additions:
Harris County Judge Bob Eckels
state Rep. Robert Talton
Houston City Councilwoman Shelley Sekula-Gibbs (apparently lives in Clear Lake?)
former Judge John Devine

Maybe we'll get more surprises too...?

I could see Eckels possibly pulling it off, but he's not really known as being from that part of Houston.

Remember, the person does not need to live in the district.

UPDATE: Tom Campbell and David Wallace both say that they will be running in the special election.

UPDATE2: Greg suggests Jerry Patterson. Interesting. Patterson strikes me as wanting to stay Land Commissioner, but who knows. He does have ties to the area of the district.

DeLay quits

2006-04-03T19:51:00.000-07:00

I just heard the news from Chris.

DeLay is quitting.

I'm researching the law on replacements right now.

Stockman collecting signatures and "running to win"

2006-03-27T08:48:00.000-08:00

CQ reports that Steve Stockman is collecting signatures for the race and is "running to win," although those are CQ's words and not Stockman's.

There's not really too much new here, although from the tone of the piece it doesn't sound as if Stockman is sticking to his original plan of running solely to play anti-Lampson attack dog.

If Stockman gets on the ballot -- and I think it's too early to say for certain whether he will -- that would certainly be a good thing for Lampson.

I'm pretty behind on blogging, but as I said previously, I think Stockman's ballot status is the most interesting story in this race over the next month or so.

Two new blogs of note

2006-03-20T22:05:00.000-08:00

Right of Texas is a new blog I'll be checking frequently. He even has maps of the CD22 primary vote -- although you should remember that CD22 does not contain the entirety of any of its counties.

Frequent commenter here Greg in TX22 has started up a blog by the same name. Greg was a Campbell voter and describes his chances of November voting as "90% of being an intentional undervote, 10% DeLay vote and 0% Lampson vote."

CQ has national experts opine on the race

2006-03-20T13:53:00.000-08:00

CQ asked four folks to answer: Is DeLay's glass half full of half empty?

I think that these responses indicate the general trouble with having national experts opine on a race with which they are not very familiar.

Del watch

2006-03-20T13:41:00.000-08:00

Samantha Levine leads her Sunday "Delegation Watch" in the Houston Chronicle with a bit on DeLay:

Just moseying off the House floor to grab a cigar and have a smoke on an outdoor balcony is a fairly new thing for former House majority leader Tom DeLay, R-Sugar Land.

During his days in the No. 2 slot, which he held for two years before his indictment in Travis County last fall forced to him to step down, the congressman refrained from milling around with lawmakers off the floor, where reporters wait to pepper members with questions.

...

But for the man once called The Hammer, times have changed.

"I feel free," he said.

As majority leader, "you always have to worry about being the spokesman for the party," DeLay added. "Now, I'm more blunt. I don't have to worry about the day-to-day operations here."

DeLay, who defeated three GOP primary opponents this month, said he has more time now to focus on issues that matter to him, such as achieving fundamental tax reform and stopping what he calls judicial activism.

DeLay Legal Update

2006-03-20T13:11:00.000-08:00

1. The Court granted a motion to stop Ronnie Earle from filing any more subpoenas. The whole trial has been on hold since mid-December, because Earle requested a stay while he is appealing to have reinstated several thrownout indictments.

2. DeLay attorney Dick DeGuerin is profiled in the Austin American-Statesman. It turns out DeGuerin lives on my street, about three blocks away. I'm pretty sure I've seen him when I run the outer loop at Rice.

3. Michael Hedges updates the situation for the Chronicle:

Rep. Tom DeLay, who emerged victorious from the Republican primary and hoped to dispose quickly of ethics controversies, remains in a legal limbo that could keep him under a cloud through the November election, according to lawyers involved in the Washington and Texas ethics cases.

The investigation into lobbyist Jack Abramoff's bilking of Indian gaming clients has not directly implicated DeLay. But it has led federal authorities to examine the actions of lawmakers and staffers with whom Abramoff worked, and DeLay is likely to be linked to the probe for the foreseeable future because of his previous close association with Abramoff.

...

Justice Department officials have declined to comment on DeLay's status in the wide-ranging probe into whether Abramoff or his associates got favors in return for contributing money to lawmakers' campaigns and arranging foreign trips for the lawmakers.

"The Justice Department has not approached us for any information or cooperation," said Richard Cullen, DeLay's attorney in the Abramoff corruption investigation. He said there is no reason to think DeLay is in legal jeopardy.

"Not even Tom DeLay's most fierce political enemies have alleged he has done anything criminal (in connection to the Washington investigation)," Cullen said. "It makes me wonder why the Chronicle feels compelled to write a story like this when there is no allegation he has done anything a prosecutor would be interested in."

The House Democratic leader, Nancy Pelosi of California, did essentially make such an allegation in January, saying in a letter to House Speaker Dennis Hastert, R-Ill., that Democrats expect the House ethics committee to look into the "alleged violations of criminal laws and the rules of the House" by DeLay and three other Republican lawmakers with ties to Abramoff. [See below -- Evan.] DeLay took trips to Russia and Britain that were indirectly funded by Abramoff and have drawn the attention of investigators to see if they involved funding that might have been improper.

Abramoff recently told Vanity Fair magazine that he didn't extensively lobby DeLay, partly because they already were in tune as conservatives.

Cullen has said the article supports the contention that there was no trade-off of legislative favors involved in their trips or their other dealings.

...

There are several legal moves remaining for both sides before DeLay's Texas lawyer, Dick DeGuerin, can achieve his goal of getting the charges into court.

A key tactic by DeLay's legal team is an effort to have the case moved from Travis County, a Democratic stronghold, to a venue more politically sympathetic to DeLay, like his home base of Fort Bend County. That request would be considered by a judge just before a trial commenced.

Given the pretrial snarls and likely appeals, a trial date in late July or early August appears most likely, DeGuerin said.

"Generally speaking, Mr. DeLay has put all his confidence in the legal system that these charges will be resolved in a timely fashion," DeGuerin said.

Here is the full text of Nancy Pelosi's letter that Hedges references. The letter doesn't seem to me to actually allege criminal conduct by DeLay (rather, it claims that "media stories have contained allegations"), which is what Hedges seems to imply.

Primary foes won't endorse DeLay

2006-03-19T18:47:00.000-08:00

Savodnik and Barr in the Hill:

The three Republicans who unsuccessfully challenged Rep. Tom DeLay (R-Texas) in a recent primary either are saying they will not endorse him in the general election or are waiting to make up their minds.

Some political observers believe the lack of unity among Texas Republicans could hamper DeLay’s effort to retain his seat and question DeLay's decision to lambaste his primary opponents soon after beating them earlier this month.

...

Tom Campbell, the environmental attorney who came in second in the primary, said that DeLay has a "problem with his base" and that he has yet to decide whether he will endorse DeLay.

Baig and Fjetland said they won't vote for DeLay.

I believe I recall Campbell saying during the primary that he voted for DeLay in 2004, but decided that it was the last time.

So it's not good for DeLay, but it's hardly unexpected that his challengers aren't endorsing him.

There are 8 long months between the primary and general elections in Texas. That's a long time, unlike in Florida where only 2 months seperate the general and primary. So that works in DeLay's favor a bit.

Back in town

2006-03-17T12:25:00.000-08:00

I'm now back in town. Spent a few days with a friend in the woods of Arkansas at a friend of a friend's trailer. Lots of fishing and hunting. It was fun and interesting, but not the stereotypical Spring Break.

I'll try and catch up on some blogging tonight, hopefully before my (not at all) Irish self celebrates St. Patrick's Day.

Out of town

2006-03-12T20:46:00.000-08:00

I'm gonna be out of town for the next few days. Posting will resume either Wednesday night or Thursday.

Steve Stockman

2006-03-10T20:45:00.000-08:00

The most interesting event over the next month or so (besides any DeLay legal developments) will be whether former Rep. Steve Stockman tries to get on the ballot.

If you happen to see or be approached by a Stockman petition gatherer, then I'd love to hear about it. Details would be great, but also great would be just the notification that Stockman is signature gathering. Anonymity is assured, if you desire.

Post-primary thoughts on DeLay vs. Lampson

2006-03-08T21:27:00.000-08:00

1. It seems that people's views of whether 62% is good or bad for DeLay are mostly determined by their knee-jerk partisan reaction.

2. At the beginning of this blog, I said that, "Tom DeLay won't lose this primary unless local activists and party leaders start abandoning him." I was right. My immediate pre-election prediction was DeLay 55%, Campbell 30%, Baig 10%, and Fjetland 5%. I was way off on Baig (who got less than 3.5%) and there's no excuse for that. Otherwise, I think it was a reasonable prediction.

3. 62% is actually pretty good for DeLay. 20% of the GOP primary would probably vote for anybody-but-DeLay (that is, 20% voted for Fjetland in 2002). That 20% is presumably turned off by DeLay's style: blunt, no-compromises conservatism.

To only lose an addition 18% when under indictment is pretty good. While I was always skeptical of the idea that DeLay would lose this primary, I assumed that DeLay was looking at 50% of the vote at minimum and 60% of the vote at maximum. So I would view 62% as fairly impressive.

4. While 62% is pretty decent, I don't think much has changed from any of my previous analyses of DeLay vs. Lampson: it depends on legal issues. Presumably the Ronnie Earle/TRMPAC indictment will be cleared up by then. If it's a guilty verdict, it's hard to see DeLay winning re-election. If it's not guilty, then I think DeLay will win.

There's also the Abramoff matter. Most people would view a Department of Justice indictment in a different manner than Ronnie Earle's indictment. Abramoff clearly has incentive to implicate officeholders, whether true or not. Folks in DC are buzzing, but there hasn't been any indictments of anyone yet. Conventional wisdom would be that a certain Congressman in Ohio will definitely be the first to be indicted, if anyone is.

I would assume that the timeline for a Department of Justice indictment would have to come in the next few months. Once you start getting towards election time, prosecutors usually become wary of issuing indictments out of fear that it will look political.

My sense is that Abramoff hasn't hit home in the district as an issue. If there's an indictment, it will. If there isn't an indictment, it won't be a factor that tips the race. It'll be good for a few attack ads from left-wing third party groups, but that's about it.

5. I don't see why CQ changed their prediction from "Leans Republican" to "No Clear Favorite" based on the primary results. If I were using CQ's rankings system, I would have ranked this race as "Leans Republican" and it would still be ranked "Leans Republican."

New CQ rating: no clear favorite

2006-03-08T13:29:00.000-08:00

CQ has changed its CD22 rating from "Leans Republican" to "No Clear Favorite."

Final primary results

2006-03-08T08:40:00.000-08:00

Here are the more or less final GOP primary results:

Pat Baig 1,115 3.36%

Tom Campbell 9,937 29.97%

Tom DeLay 20,558 62.00%

Mike Fjetland 1,550 4.67%

DeLay vs. Lampson -- DeLay's statement

2006-03-07T21:21:00.000-08:00

Here's Tom DeLay's statement on tonight:

"I have always placed my faith in the voters, and today's vote shows they have placed their full faith in me. This race was about who can effectively represent the values and the priorities of the people in this district, and I'm proud to have earned, and overwhelmingly kept, that trust among Republican voters. Not only did they reject the politics of personal destruction, but they strongly rejected the candidates who used those Democrat tactics as their platform.

"Our volunteers and grassroots activists are just incredible and they worked diligently in neighborhoods around this district. I'm honored to have them stand with me as we prepare to defend this district from the funding and activism of America's most radical Democrats.

"Liberal activists like Barbra Streisand, George Soros, and Nancy Pelosi all have a dog in this fight, and his name is Nick Lampson.

"Over the next eight months, Lampson and his national Democrat allies will continue to lie to the voters about his liberal record, attempt to take credit for Republican ideas, and use innuendo to attack my integrity. During that time my focus will remain on effectively representing the 22nd District in Congress by providing support to our troops who are fighting and winning the war on terror, securing funds to improve transportation and bolster NASA, and protecting our family values. The choice couldn't be more clear.

"Democrat attacks and the politics of personal destruction were heavily used by my opponents in this Republican primary, and they were rejected just like they will be in November. Now we need to focus on the real contest at hand -- the battle between Republicans and liberal Democrats, between myself and Nick Lampson. This election will determine who makes the decisions about continuing our fight against terrorists around the world, securing our borders, reforming our tax code, and protecting our values. I'm the only candidate who has faithfully stood up for these conservative priorities, and I am asking for Republican voters to stand with me as we defend this district from the dangerous and irresponsible representation of Nick Lampson."

I've been having trouble getting on Lampson's press release list despite a few attempts, but if I can obtain Lampson's statement, I'll print it.

UPDATE: Here's Lampson's statement, via Kuffner:

Welcome to my Texas uprising!

Tonight is the first big step toward a big change in November. The departure of Mr. DeLay has been delayed long enough.

Tonight, I called Pat Baig, Mike Fjetland, and Tom Campbell to congratulate them on their campaigns. It takes courage to put your name on the ballot against Tom DeLay in a Republican Primary and I wanted them to know they have my respect.

And I want their supporters tonight to know that I am here humbly asking for their votes. I am willing to earn these votes.

These candidates and their supporters recognized a need for change and had the courage to stand up to Tom DeLay. I hope they will join me as we fight our way to November.

Now, let me get to the heart of the matter. Right now in Washington, we're seeing scandal after scandal, the deficit's out of control, jobs are going overseas, and the special interests are running the show.

And you know who's at the center of all of it?

Tom DeLay.

Here's why I'm running for Congress.

First of all, I believe in a balanced budget. I believe you have to make choices and sacrifices. But choosing favors for lobbyists over results for Texas is not the kind of sacrifice I have in mind.

When I was in Congress, I voted to reduce the deficit, lower the national debt, and to set priorities like strengthening Social Security, homeland security, and our public schools.

Meanwhile, Tom DeLay was voting to increase the deficit, raise the debt ceiling, gut education, weaken port security, and privatize Social Security.

We had a clear difference of opinion then . and we still do now.

I believe in national security and homeland security. In particular, I'm not new to this whole issue of protecting our ports from terrorism.

When I was in Congress, I fought to pass legislation that would have increased funding for port security and increased the number of containers that are checked for biological and chemical weapons.

I voted yes. Tom DeLay voted no.

We had a clear difference of opinion then . and we still do now.

I believe in standing up for American jobs. It's time we had a representative who chooses Texas families over multi-national corporations.

We need to stop passing tax breaks for companies shipping jobs overseas. Instead, we should focus tax breaks on working families and small businesses like Cliff's Old Fashion Grill so we can create jobs and improve our economy.

On helping our working families and small businesses, I voted yes. Tom DeLay voted no.

We had a clear difference of opinion then . and we still do now.

And finally, I believe in telling the truth and accepting responsibility. But let's look at just the past few months in Washington .

The Jack Abramoff Lobbyist Scandal. The Hurricane Response Scandal. The Port Deal Scandal. And members of Congress either under indictment or being sent to prison.

It's time to send a message to Washington -- you couldn't clean up your act, so we're gonna to do it for you.

Here's what you will never hear about Nick Lampson when I'm in Congress.

You'll never hear that I sold out my fellow Texans to a Washington lobbyist.

You'll never hear that I used the IRS or the Department of Homeland Security to get revenge on people who disagreed with me.

And you'll never hear that I took money from a charity and used it for politics.

Tom DeLay gets headlines for all the wrong reasons. Well, I'm looking forward to that headline on November 8th . No Further DeLay.

When it comes to standing up for Texas families, I say this . No more delays.

Balancing the budget and returning to fiscal responsibility? No more delays.

Creating American jobs? No more delays.

Securing our ports? No more delays.

Cleaning up Washington? No more delays.

Strengthening Social Security? No more delays.

Fixing the Medicare drug benefit? No more delays.

And finishing the job in Iraq with honor and so we can bring our troops home? No more delays.

I'm honored to be your nominee . and no matter what Tom DeLay says in the weeks and months ahead, just know this .

I've got thick skin and hard hands. I'm as independent as Texas and as strong-willed as the Gulf Coast.

I'll work my hardest and I'll never let you down.

Thank you, God bless you, and God bless the Lone Star State.

Primary Results

2006-03-07T16:55:00.000-08:00

Results tonight: GOP, Dem

In case you are a true junkie, here are the results for each county in the district:
Brazoria Dem, GOP
Fort Bend Dem, GOP
Galveston (to come, the direct links are not live yet, but they will be here)
Harris Dem, GOP

EDIT: Timestamp updated to move to top of the page.

UPDATE: DeLay 60%, Baig 5%, Fetland 7%, and Campbell 29% in early voting for Fort Bend. This probably augurs well for DeLay.

UPDATE 2: DeLay 80%, Campbell 16% in Harris County. However, turnout was 2 times heavier in Fort Bend, so DeLay's lead is probably around 65% right now. Early returns seem to indicate that DeLay has outperformed expectations though.

UPDATE 3: So far, the election day results are pretty close to early voting, with DeLay maybe a point or two behind early voting results.

UPDATE 4: With 190 of 216 precincts reporting, DeLay has 62%, Campbell has 30%, Fjetland has 5%, and Baig has 3%.

Predictions

2006-03-07T16:48:00.000-08:00

The early voting numbers are about to come in, and I'm about to head out to make it to my precinct convention. That unfortunately means that I'll be away from my computer for a bit. Darn!

Predictions are a difficult thing; generally, the smaller the race, the harder. I haven't seen any poll data that I'd feel comfortable relying on this race, so it's solely on intuition.

With that said, my guess is that DeLay will win tonight with somewhere around 55% of the vote. Given that Mike Fjetland took 20% of the vote against DeLay in 2002, I would assume that the combination of indictment and a credible challenger will at least double that vote. Add a few anti-DeLay points for Democrats voting in the primary (yes, I do think it is probably worth a few points), and that's where I come up with 55%.

So my guess would be something like DeLay 55%, Campbell 30%, Baig 10%, and Fjetland 5%. But who knows? I could be terribly wrong, and not living in the district doesn't help provide any anecdotal evidence.

UPDATE: Very, very quick recap of what I missed blogging about over the last week due to time constraints.

Campbell was endorsed by the Houston Chronicle and the Fort Bend Star. Neither is a surprise at all (I believe DeLay did not show for the Chronicle editorial board), but certainly helped solidify his stake as the credible non-DeLay candidate.

DeLay spent the morning in the district, before flying to DC this afternoon for votes. According to the Chron, he'll spend election night with former GOP Congressmen and now-lobbyists Bill Paxon and Susan Molinari at a fundraiser. Meanwhile, some filmmakers release a film about Texas redistricting today.

Edit: Fixed numbers to make them add up to 100%.

Busy; tomorrow

2006-03-06T20:18:00.000-08:00

Since tomorrow is primary, I'll be posting.

Just an FYI.

Chron article

2006-02-28T12:39:00.000-08:00

Samantha Levine has a piece today on the closing days of the primary.

Nothing really knew here, but I thought I'd link to it.

DeLay endorsed; Campbell hits DeLay on Abramoff

2006-02-27T18:20:00.000-08:00

Fort Bend Now:

U.S. Rep. Tom DeLay led a slate of incumbent candidates who won endorsement Friday from the Fort Bend County Mayor & Council Association.

After a candidates' forum at the Rosenberg Civic Center, and a vote by association members late Thursday night, the group endorsed candidates for the first time in its history. Every incumbent office holder won an endorsement.

...

As he did last week, Campbell called on DeLay to disclose details of his dealings "with Mr. Jack Abramoff," the disgraced Washington lobbyist who has pled guilty to federal charges of tax evasion, fraud and conspiracy to bribe public officials, in exchange for testimony about several senators and members of Congress.

"I believe Mr. DeLay needs to give us an explanation," Campbell said. "I believe we need to understand exactly what that relationship is."

Weekly Standard article on primary

2006-02-27T18:16:00.000-08:00

Matthew Continetti profiles the DeLay vs Campbell primary in the Weekly Standard.

Money is always fun to talk about

2006-02-27T18:01:00.000-08:00

Samantha Levine has an article in the Chronicle headlined, "DeLay trailing Lampson in cash on hand."

Rep. Tom DeLay, R-Sugar Land, is trailing his potential Democratic opponent, former Rep. Nick Lampson, in fundraising and cash in the bank, according to new financial reports that covered the first six weeks of the year.

DeLay, who faces three contenders in the March 7 Republican primary for the 22nd Congressional District seat, raised $154,712 and spent $304,795 between Jan. 1 and Feb. 15, the time span covered in the reports filed with the Federal Election Commission. The lawmaker reported having about $1.3 million in the bank.

Lampson, unopposed in the Democratic primary, raised $250,970 in the same time frame and spent $125,027. He has more than $1.4 million on hand.

...

DeLay's largest recent expenditure — $110,000 — went to the law firm employing Richard Cullen, the attorney representing him in the Justice Department investigation of an influence-peddling scandal involving indicted former lobbyist Jack Abramoff.

The only outside expert Levine quotes -- several times -- is Dr. Murray from the University of Houston. Given that Dr. Murray's son was Lampson's first campaign manager, you'd think that would be a fact worth noting. Although I doubt this changes Murray's mind when he opines, it seems that it would make sense to find a different expert.

For this race, campaign finance numbers are interesting, but they won't determine who represents district 22 in the 110th Congress. The law of diminishing returns almost always comes into play. When you consider how many third-party groups are likely to air ads too, who raises more or who has more cash on hand is very unlikely to be the determining factor.

Tom DeLay's press conference with the Texas GOP delegation; Campbell's press availability and poll

2006-02-23T22:18:00.000-08:00

I was in the area, but detained until right before the start of the press conference. I sprinted over, arriving more than a little out of breath, with my notebook in hand to pretend like I was a real reporter. One thing about political rallies that I'd never experienced from the other side: if you hold a notebook in your hand, no one in the crowd will talk to you.

The overarching theme for the day was Tom DeLay's power and what he has done for district 22 and Houston at large. The work DeLay had done for funding NASA was cited over and over by the Congressmen, as well as funding DeLay had secured for the Port of Houston, transportation and mobility projects, and research.

Henry Bonilla spoke first, and set an enthusiastic tone. Bonilla's claim: "[Delay has had] as big of an impact on Texas politics as LBJ." He further offered that DeLay didn't ask the Congressmen to come, but that "we asked him to come here." (I checked this out with various non-DeLay congressional sources who told me that Bonilla's office did in fact make the calls.)

Y'know what's great about being a blogger? I don't have to organize this stuff. So here are the things I wrote down in my notebook. These are some random quotes and observations.

Fort Worth's Kay Granger followed Bonilla, then Kevin Brady. Brady spoke at length on DeLay's work in funding Houston mobility, and credited DeLay with Texas' sales tax deduction. Pete Sessions was up next, followed by John Carter. Carter labeled DeLay the "best member of Congress in America." John Culberson: "The Chronicle never reports on all the magnificent work Tom and Christine have done on foster care." Then Judge Poe spoke, while Sam Johnson arrived. DeLay had a big grin on his face the whole time, and started turning pretty red somewhere around this point.

Newly elected East Texas Rep. Louie Gohmert opened with a joke, and some of the reporters even cracked a smile. Somewhere during this time, the cell phone of one of the Chronicle writers was vibrating repeatedly (and loudly, for vibrate mode). Sam Johnson from Plano spoke, and then DeLay's 1984 classmate Joe Barton spoke for a long time on DeLay's integrity ("I'll stake my reputation that he's a man of integrity"). Barton also promoted DeLay's work on port security over the years.

DeLay came on and talked about how he ran for Congress to support Reagan's tax cuts and win the Cold War, and how the issues were remarkably similar today: tax cuts and war on terror. He offered that the press conference was at University of Houston because "I take advantage of my members...may be asking for help [for UH] soon."

On the Bush administration's proposed port deal, DeLay said that it was, "not just a bad idea, it's a national security risk" and that Congress "would have an important role to play in changing this policy."

He also got in a few shots at the "liberal extremists funding Nick Lampson's campaign" and that Lampson would support "Nancy Pelosi's agenda." They then decamped to the lunch room, which was closed to the press. Apparently, that includes bloggers...I guess that's a compliment!

Tom Campbell was holding a press availibility, so I wandered around until I found them. Unfortunately for them, UH's parking is pretty crowded, so they were kinda far off from the UH Hilton, which made the media attendance sparse, at least while I was there.

Some themes and quotes from Campbell:

* Now that he's not Majority Leeader, DeLay's power is "more perceived than real."
* I can win this district in November; DeLay can't.
* While he isn't getting any public endorsements, elected officials are telling him off the record that he will have their vote.
* His polls showed him neck-and-neck with DeLay
* DeLay's recent attacks on him were good for his name ID in the district.

Campbell shared that they'd done an internal autodialer tracking poll by OneNet Info (whom I'm unfamiliar with, and I know lots of pollsters) over the last few days which showed Campbell with 47%, DeLay with 38%, and Other with 14%. He claimed that this was an improvement over some of their recent polling, though he conceded that with only 151 respondents, the margin of error was quite large (his campaign puts it at 9%, I suspect it might be even larger since Dr. Hill put the Chron's recent poll with 213 respondents at a 9% margin of error).

Some thoughts on the poll:

1. I agree with Campbell about his name ID. One of the dangers that DeLay faced when they chose to attack Campbell was that they would raise his name ID. Attacking raises name ID.

2. DeLay's camp clearly has some fear of Campbell. At the outset, they said that Campbell was a credible challenger. But not only does DeLay want to win, they don't want to eke out a small victory. The decision to attack shows that they thought attacking was worth raising his name ID.

3. Although I think Campbell's name ID is higher because of the attacks, I'm not sure I buy that it's above 40% yet. I talked with a few folks around the district, and they agreed with me.

4. A poll that offers only Campbell, DeLay, and "Other" as responses will push some Baig or Fjetland voters into Campbell's camp. Campbell conceded to me that they were pushing people to make a choice between Campbell and Delay.

5. DeLay's campaign claims that they've heard from people outside the district who were polled, and also questioned the poll's methodology as confusing.

6. I don't think Campbell is winning right now, despite what his internal polls show. I would definitely require more polling that says so before I believed that to be true. Internal polling always overstate their candidate's support; it's an axiom of politics. Though I don't question their good faith, it cuts against my intuition and my anecdotal evidence. But then, the great thing about politics is that we'll know who is wrong or right in the next few days.

Now that I've written my post, let me go see what the reporters wrote about the press conference.

UPDATE: Here's how Kristen Mack from the Chronicle wrote up the story:

Ten Republican members of the Texas congressional delegation, including a few who owe their jobs to redistricting engineered by U.S. Rep. Tom DeLay, came to Houston on Thursday to endorse the incumbent.

"We're not here because Tom DeLay is 'The Hammer' or because Tom DeLay is some intimidating, threatening character," said Rep. Joe Barton of Ennis, referring to DeLay's nickname as an enforcer of party discipline. "We're here because he's been a leader and a voice for positive conservative change."

UPDATE 2: Here's how Wendy Benjaminson from the AP led her story:

U.S. Rep. Tom DeLay was likened to Stonewall Jackson, Lyndon Baines Johnson and a courageous World War I officer today as members of the Texas Republican congressional delegation joined the former House majority leader to endorse his re-election.

The unusual display of GOP solidarity was remarkable for DeLay, who is aggressively campaigning for re-election to the seat he has held comfortably for 22 years. This year he faces a contested primary March 7, and if he wins, a credible candidate in Democrat Nick Lampson in November.

"He's got a contested primary; that's why we're here," said U.S. Rep. Joe Barton, R-Ennis.

Playing reporter

2006-02-23T14:14:00.001-08:00

Today, Tom DeLay held an early voting rally and luncheon at the UH Hilton featuring members of the Texas Republican congressional delegation. The congressmen were pretty enthusiastic. Afterwards, Tom Campbell had a press availability that I stopped by until I had to literally run to get to my next appointment.

My report will follow tonight. In the nature of blogging, hopefully it'll be a little different than your average story.

I haven't gotten a chance to play reporter since I was an assistant editor of my high school newspaper. I'm out of practice.

DeLay criticizes port deal; picks up Chamber endorsement

2006-02-22T21:19:00.000-08:00

AP:

U.S. Rep. Tom DeLay said Wednesday that President Bush is making a big mistake backing a sale of shipping operations at six major U.S. seaports to a state-owned business in the United Arab Emirates.

The former Republican majority leader said the administration's approval of the deal is "pretty outrageous." DeLay made the remarks during a campaign event with Houston real estate executives.

...

"When it's a matter of national security, the president will be overturned," DeLay said in an account that appeared on the Web site of the Austin American-Statesman. "We will overturn it within the next few weeks."

I can't yet find coverage of this on the Houston Chronicle's website, but I wouldn't be surprised if they have their own story soon.

Meanwhile, the US Chamber of Commerce gave DeLay an award and endorsed him.

When you're the incumbent, it's easier to make news.

Talking about money

2006-02-22T06:26:00.000-08:00

Jonathan Kaplan -- The Hill:

Hollywood celebrities and prominent corporate executives have poured thousands of dollars into the campaign of former Rep. Nick Lampson (D-Texas) to knock off Rep. Tom DeLay (R-Texas).

Screenwriter and producer Norman Lear, director Rob Reiner, actress and singer Barbara Streisand and musician Don Henley have written checks to Lampson, according to politicalmoneyline.com, a website that tracks campaign contributions.

Reiner and Streisand kicked in $1,000, and Lear and Henley sent Lampson $4,200.

...

Lampson also has scooped up money from the chief executives of major corporations. Andrew Rappaport, a major investor and philanthropist, and his wife, Deborah, donated $2,100 each. Lawrence Tesler, CEO of Yahoo; Arnold Hiatt, CEO of the Stride Rite Foundation; and Richard Thalheimer, CEO of the Sharper Image; and George Zimmer, CEO of Men’s Wearhouse, wrote $1,000 checks to Lampson.

Former politicians, such as, Sen. Tom Daschle (D-S.D.), have helped out as well.

Daschle directed $10,000 from his leftover campaign chest to Lampson, and Sen. Dennis DeConcini (D-Ariz.), Rep. Vic Fazio (D-Calif.) and Rep. John LaFalce (D-N.Y.) each sent $1,000 checks. President Clinton's first chief of staff, Mack McClarty, gave $500.

Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and Minority Whip Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) have contributed $10,000 each from their leadership PACs, and Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) has donated $5,000.

Leonard Nimoy also donated to Lampson, I saw on Lampson's list. I guess Mr. Spock doesn't like DeLay.

I think it's fair to say that one of the left's big goals this election cycle is to defeat DeLay. So it's not too much of a surprise to see Hollywood donating to Lampson.

Meanwhile, DeLay's camp claims that:

60% of DeLay's money is from TX, 40% from outside
30% of Lampson's money is from TX; 70% percent from outside

I didn't check those numbers (you think I want to sit around with a spreadsheet?), but they looked about right after I flipped through the campaign finance reports.

I feel fairly confident that we will see these numbers again in a television screen nearest you.

2006-02-22T06:25:00.000-08:00

Sometimes, I get lazy:

Ex-NOAA Gen. Counsel Tom Campbell (R) will release his third TV ad today, in which "he pledges not to go negative in the campaign, despite" the "attacks being made" on him by Rep. Tom DeLay (R-TX). In the ad, while Campbell acknowledges that DeLay "has done some good things" in Congress, he also argues that with DeLay's "personal and legal problems and the threat of further disclosures hanging over his head, he simply can't be effective in Washington." A Campbell consultant described the ad buy in the "tens of thousands," and noted it will be run locally on CNN and Fox.

DeLay spokesperson Shannon Flaherty "dismissed Campbell's assertions" in the ad as "resorting to Democratic attacks to just get some attention." Flaherty, on Campbell: "He has very little support here in the district and very few people know who he is."

Meanwhile, according to Flaherty, DeLay is "actively encouraging supporters to vote early," and is sending out 3 separate mailings this week to GOP voters "highlighting his anti-abortion rights record, his support for gun rights and his commitment" to the GOP philosophy of tax cuts and budget reform. Flaherty: "While [Campbell] is still trying to introduce himself to Republican primary voters in his home county, Congressman DeLay is already targeting folks who have supported him and getting them to the polls" (Preston, "Morning Grind," CNN.com, 2/21).

That's from The Hotline.

Bob Perry paid for pro-DeLay, anti-Soros ad

2006-02-22T06:19:00.000-08:00

Samantha Levine and Kristen Mack have this in the Chronicle:

Houston homebuilder Bob Perry is the sole funding source for a $200,000 TV advertising campaign that supports Rep. Tom DeLay and criticizes Democratic financier George Soros.

Perry, a longtime Republican donor, gave the entire amount that the conservative Committee for Free Enterprise used on the 30-second spot, according to spokesman Anthony Holm. The committee, rather than Perry, is identified in the ad as the sponsor.

"Mr. Perry felt the truth needed to be told and this was the best vehicle to do so," Holm said. "Mr. Perry believes Tom DeLay has done an excellent job protecting jobs, NASA, and our borders. He spent it as the result of the several unjustified attacks on Tom DeLay."

...

Perry, a close friend of President Bush's top political aide, Karl Rove, has given millions to Texas GOP candidates, including DeLay.

Perry and his wife, Doylene, each contributed $5,000 late last year to DeLay's legal defense fund.

...

Soros spokesman Michael Vachon said, "Tom DeLay must be pretty desperate if he's trying to blame George Soros for his troubles."

The ad says Soros has bankrolled efforts to defeat DeLay and President Bush and supports "legalizing drugs, letting felons vote and keeping the death tax."

It never looks particularly good to voters when one donor paid for the entire campaign of an outside ad. But if it serves to further polarize the electorate, then it might be good for DeLay and bad for Lampson.

Early voting begins today

2006-02-21T09:58:00.000-08:00

Tuesday is the start of early voting.

Rumor has it that Campbell's first mail piece dropped Monday or Tuesday.

Growl

2006-02-16T19:44:00.000-08:00

The last few times I've come to this blog, the yellow sidebar was missing. Well, placed down the page.

Is that happening to anyone else? If you aren't getting the sidebar, could you email me (perryvsworld-at-gmail.com) or leave a comment?

Local Fox affiliate won't run conservative group's pro-DeLay ad

2006-02-16T10:01:00.000-08:00

Samantha Levine in the Chron on Fox26's refusal to run an outside conservative group's pro-DeLay ad:

"We have chosen not to take the spot in its current form," said D'Artagnan Bebel, vice president and general manager of the local Fox affiliate, KRIV (Channel 26). He would not elaborate on why.

Representatives from KTRK (Channel 13) and KHOU (Channel 11) were unavailable for comment. KPRC (Channel 2) General Manager Larry Blackerby said he was unaware of it.

The ad is slated to run on CNN and Fox News in and around DeLay's suburban Houston district, starting today and running for two weeks.

The 30-second spot from the conservative Free Enterprise Committee attacks billionaire financier and Democratic supporter George Soros for spending "$25 million against President Bush. He also bankrolled the liberals linked to attacks on Tom DeLay."

Soros contributed $300,000 to the Campaign for America's Future, which along with the Public Campaign Action Fund, put out the ad that highlighted ties between DeLay and disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff.

"It's great that organizations like this are getting the truth out about extreme liberals like George Soros who are supporting Nick Lampson and Nancy Pelosi's agenda in Congress," DeLay campaign spokeswoman Shannon Flaherty said. She added she was unaware of the ad until a reporter called.

Democrat Lampson is running against DeLay in the November general election. California liberal Pelosi is the leader of the Democrats in the House.

The new ad features pictures of a bewildered-looking Soros followed by a smiling DeLay. "When you see attacks on DeLay, consider the source," it says. "And tell Tom DeLay to keep fighting for your conservative values."

TV stations turning down money right and left. What a race.

UPDATE: You can watch the video here.

The script is here:

George Soros, full of money and liberal ideas -- like legalizing drugs, letting felons vote and keeping the death tax.

Soros spent twenty-five million dollars against President Bush.

He also bankrolled the liberals linked to attacks on Tom DeLay.

Maybe that's because Tom DeLay fights for lower taxes and economic freedom.

So when you see attacks on DeLay, consider the source.

And tell Tom DeLay to keep fighting for your conservative values.

The ad is running on network and cable TV (except local Fox, obviously) for 2 weeks.

Tom DeLay's Valentine's Present to Tom Campbell

2006-02-15T21:10:00.000-08:00

Kristen Mack in the Chronicle on DeLay's attack of Campbell:

DeLay's campaign said challenger Tom Campbell, a lawyer, has not been active in local party politics and has not voted regularly in Republican primaries.

"Every day he proves he's nothing more than an outsider who isn't concerned with conservative issues or fighting for the priorities of Texas taxpayers," DeLay campaign manager Chris Homan said of Campbell.

Campbell's campaign countered that no pure GOP insider would dare challenge the powerful DeLay, even if he has been weakened by a Travis County indictment relating to campaign finance and a federal investigation into his relationship with disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff.

"The fact is that Tom Campbell is like you and me. He is not a career politician like Tom DeLay. He is a citizen politician," said Michael Stanley, Campbell's campaign chairman. "Tom Campbell calls on Tom DeLay to get beyond the negative, immaterial distractions and get back to the real issues that are important to the people of the district."

Republican Party officials in Fort Bend and Harris County, who have close ties to DeLay, said they had neither seen nor heard of Campbell before he filed for office.

"We wouldn't have called him a conservative as far as being a Texas Republican," said Michael Wolfe, chairman of the Harris County Republican Party's candidate's committee.

Good wordsmithing by Michael Stanley for Campbell. "Citizen politician" is what Ronald Reagan called himself for years.

Meanwhile, the AP carries details that Mack chose not to cover:

DeLay's campaign charged that Campbell, a Houston attorney, "tried to hide the fact" that he's voted in only two Republican primaries since registering to vote in Fort Bend County a dozen years ago. The campaign also alleged Campbell lied about his activities with the Fort Bend Republican Party, is raising money outside the district, and that his campaign commercial contains footage from Michigan.

...

Campbell answered, "I don't recall," when asked how many of the last four Republican primaries he voted in. Campbell acknowledged to The Associated Press that he only voted in two primaries in the last 12 years.

"I have not voted as often as I should have," he said. "I have a national (legal) practice and travel hundreds of thousands of miles."

Although DeLay's campaign charged Campbell "falsified" his involvement in the Fort Bend Republican Party, the questionnaire asks only: "List your past and/or present membership or involvement in Republican organizations."

Campbell's answer was: "Fort Bend Republican Party; Fort Bend Hispanic Club."

Fort Bend Republican Party Chairman Eric Thode said that since Campbell announced his candidacy, Campbell has bought a table for a local party event and attended party functions. Before that, he had not been involved "in any way," Thode said.

"He never claimed to be an intimate insider in the Republican primary," said Campbell campaign manager Michael Stanley. "It would take an outsider to challenge DeLay."

Bill Nixon of Policy Impact Communications in Washington, D.C., which produced Campbell's ad, said all the comments from voters showed were shot in the district by local residents, the footage of the space shuttle lifting off was "clearly from Florida," and didn't know where other footage was from.

I re-watched the commercial in question that DeLay says is from Michigan. I remember thinking, "that doesn't look like Houston," when I originally saw that spot. When watching again, those definitely do appear to be blue Michigan license plates.

Meanwhile, Fort Bend Now covered an element that neither the AP or Chronicle did:

In a statement, DeLay's campaign said Campbell has received "such little support" in the 22nd District that he's been forced to raise money by "hitting the road," adding, "Yesterday, Campbell was in Utah holding a fund raiser to take money from students at his alma mater, Brigham Young."

"Tom Campbell needs to take a hint -- if he's getting more campaign support in Utah, he should consider staying there," Homan said.

Stanley said Campbell has held two out-of-state fund raisers that took in about $10,000 apiece, and that he's raised a total of about $130,000 so far.

"The reality is, it's not just the people of the 22nd District who want to see Tom DeLay replaced," Stanley said. "In the Utah fund raiser, the governor personally donated some money. That fund raiser was hosted at the downtown law firm of Sen. Orrin Hatch's son."

In what the DeLay campaign must have loved, since it fit with their message, the Salt Lake Tribune had a reporter on Campbell's fundraiser:

Utahns are helping finance the campaign of a Texas attorney challenging former U.S. House Majority Leader Tom DeLay for his seat in Congress.

Tom Campbell, a graduate of Brigham Young University, swept into Salt Lake City on Monday for a whirlwind fundraiser and meeting with Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr.

Campbell is running as a reformer. He says the future of the Republican Party hinges on his race against the embattled incumbent in Texas' 22nd Congressional District.

...

Former congressional candidate and Huntsman adviser Tim Bridgewater hosted Campbell during a reception at a downtown law firm, the office of Sen. Orrin Hatch's son, Brent.

Meanwhile, in case you'd like to compare the coverage with the press release, I'll reprint the press release in full. I really wish I could put this in an extended entry, but Blogger doesn't do that.

From the dark and empty headquarters of 22nd District congressional candidate Tom Campbell's office comes his second television commercial and further proof of what Republican primary voters have known all along -- Tom Campbell has no base of support, no history of supporting the Republican Party, and is so inexperienced he's using film from Michigan in his commercials. Campbell isn't doing a very good job of introducing himself to Texas voters, particularly since he's spending valuable campaign time in Utah.

Campbell has received such little support in the 22nd District that he's forced to take Democrat Nick Lampson's approach to fundraising by hitting the road. Yesterday, Campbell was in Utah holding a fundraiser to take money from students at his alma mater, Brigham Young. In the meantime, only a handful of individuals in Houston will support him financially, and that's including his family, campaign manager, and treasurer.

"Tom Campbell needs to take a hint -- if he's getting more campaign support in Utah, he should consider staying there," said DeLay campaign manager Chris Homan.

Tom Campbell Shows No Love to the Republican Party, Demands Much in Return

When it comes to his conservative credentials and political activities, Tom Campbell is proven to be no sweetheart to the Texas Republican Party.

* On a recent Harris County Republican Party candidate questionnaire, he tried to hide the fact he's only voted in two Republican primaries since registering to vote in Fort Bend more than 11 years ago.

* Not only does he hide his pitiful voting record, but he falsified his involvement with the Fort Bend Republican Party. In fact, no one in the local Republican Party had ever heard of Tom Campbell until he started echoing the Democrat attacks on Congressman DeLay.

* And Campbell clearly doesn't grasp the conservative principles held by a majority of Republican voters. Just last week he told a group of voters at a candidate forum that he opposes conservative efforts to abolish the IRS as part of a package to replace the current tax code with a fairer, flatter tax.

"Clearly, Mr. Campbell is no conservative. Every day he proves he's nothing more than an outsider who isn't concerned with conservative issues or fighting for the priorities of Texas taxpayers," Homan said. "He's not qualified to run for Republican precinct chair, let alone represent hundreds and thousands of Republican voters in Congress."

Campbell's Commercials -- Canned in Michigan?

In his most recent commercial, Campbell says it's time to focus on local priorities. But, part of the commercial was filmed in Michigan. While trying to make the point that he will stand up for local issues, Campbell uses video of cars with Michigan license plates. Was it just too hard for Campbell to even find a Texas venue to slap together his newest video joke?

And where was Tom Campbell when NASA was facing a budget shortfall, or when Texans were forming coalitions to bring back more highway dollars and build I-69 through Fort Bend? The only one who can answer that question is Tom Campbell, but he remains silent on his inaction and general disregard for local issues.

"Someone needs to let Mr. Campbell know if you're asking for the trust of Texas voters, you don't film your commercials in Michigan," Homan concluded.

I'll probably put my thoughts up tomorrow.

It's primary season!

2006-02-15T20:50:00.000-08:00

1. A couple days late, the Chronicle noticed that DeLay has retaken his seat on Appropriations and the subcommitees that do NASA and Homeland Security.

2. USNews reports that DeLay does not plan to return to the House leadership if he is acquitted in the TRMPAC charges. A smart move for the campaign:

Associates said that DeLay instead will use his position on the Appropriations Committee to boost NASA spending, especially for his hometown Johnson Space Center in Houston, and will move back into the unofficial post as head of the Texas House delegation.

DeLay may get some flak for being preoccupied with national issues, but it'll be tough to say that replacing him would bring the district more clout on local issues.

3. From the Hotline:

One campaign's internal polling shows Campbell trailing DeLay by only 10 points.

Around 6am this morning I put an email in to Campbell's campaign, but I have yet to hear back from them.

Color me skeptical. This was the day when Campbell went on the air. At that time, the media coverage in the district was rather light, and Campbell hadn't dropped any direct mail pieces (still hasn't, though a commenter suggests that there will be one dropping this week). So -- barring every other consideration -- how would Campbell be able to get name ID to be within ten points of DeLay?

Given that I've only seen this in the Hotline, it makes me wonder whether perhaps Lampson's campaign provided the poll to the Hotline. They would be more likely to have the DC connections to do so. If so...interesting. Playing in the other party's primary is brilliant when you pull it off (see South, Garry), but hazardous when you don't. But who knows, it's all speculation.

Or it could just be a rehash of the Chronicle's recent poll. If you're here, you probably know I think that poll was flawed, and I'd expect the Hotline to be more savvy in noticing that it was the Chronicle's poll. Who knows?

4. Al Franken's new PAC gave Lampson money. I bet this is not the last time we hear of this from DeLay's camp.

"GOP voters still favor DeLay in District 22"

2006-02-15T20:33:00.000-08:00

Kristen Mack does the primary. The title of this post is the headline:

When U.S. Rep. Tom DeLay showed up at a candidate forum in Sugar Land last week, one of his Republican primary opponents slipped to the back of the room after a short speech and another talked about the need for civility in Washington.

Then DeLay took the microphone, and his years as a fearsome political battler came to the fore as he passionately vowed to fight for the district and against Democrats, civility or no.

"You know me, you know how long and hard I have worked," DeLay said at the forum sponsored by the local chamber of commerce and Republican groups. "When I fight, we win."

The hometown crowd applauded enthusiastically.

...

Compared with the DeLay powerhouse, the challengers are little-known underdogs.

Anyone who took him on had to be somewhat of an outsider.

No prominent Republican would dare challenge DeLay, although many are watching to see how he fares when he goes on trial on Travis County money-laundering charges related to campaign finance.

Campbell's campaign hopes to convince voters that casting a ballot for DeLay in a primary amounts to ceding the seat to a Democrat.

Former U.S. Rep. Nick Lampson is the only Democratic candidate, and will draw funding and support from across the nation from party members wanting to unseat the GOP heavyweight.

A lower-profile Republican, Campbell reasons, has a better chance of holding the district, which has a GOP voting history.

"Our challenge is to harvest the votes," said Michael Stanley, Campbell's campaign chairman. "DeLay's is to stop the bleeding."

Though he says he and DeLay agree on key issues -- Campbell backs smaller and more limited government, tax cuts and border control -- he abhors what he perceives as DeLay's ethical lapses.

"He can no longer be an effective advocate for the things that are important to us because of the baggage he has," Campbell said.

Campbell's campaign message is succinct. He has several one-liners that have become part of his stump speech:

"I believe 22 years is long enough."

"It's time to get back to the issues that are important to us."

"The public's business needs to be conducted with civility, decency and integrity."

With only a small team of campaign workers, though, Campbell is consumed with the minute details of the campaign.

It will take $400,000 to win the primary, Campbell said. He's raised $110,000 and has another $130,000 in commitments.

I love the anecdotes. Why? Because I see no evidence that DeLay will change his campaign style and be a softer DeLay. He'll campaign as outspoken as ever; just witness Mack's first couple paragraphs. And that makes for entertaining politics.

Tomorrow.

2006-02-14T21:57:00.000-08:00

I'll be blogging tomorrow. I promise.

Here are some of the links I'll be throwing up.

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/front/3653114.html
http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/news/nation/stories/DN-texwatch_12nat.ART.State.Edition1.3f23c50.html
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/politics/3651731.html
http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/APStories/stories/D8FLVDK07.html
http://www.newsmax.com/archives/ic/2006/2/13/130918.shtml
http://www.usnews.com/usnews/news/articles/060213/13delay.htm
http://www.fortbendnow.com/news/727/delay-removes-gloves-takes-a-poke-at-campbell
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/headline/metro/3660244.html
http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/APStories/stories/D8FP4IDG4.html
http://www.sltrib.com/utah/ci_3507078
And a link I can't find right now about Campbell's internal polling.

PvW
http://www.dfw.com/mld/dfw/13857712.htm
http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/dn/opinion/viewpoints/stories/DN-mckenzie_14edi.ART.State.Edition1.e3a9739.html

So now you have a preview of tomorrow's blogging.

DeLay mails letter

2006-02-12T20:46:00.000-08:00

Kristen Mack in the Chronicle:

The Sugar Land Republican congressman has sent an eight-page letter to constituents, written in script and asking for their support as he contends with questions about his ties to an indicted lobbyist, an indictment of his own and political challenges from inside and outside his party.

DeLay sent the letter to thousands of Republicans in the 22nd Congressional District, saying he wanted to answer questions directly and personally.

In the letter DeLay distances himself from disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff, whom he called "one of my closest and dearest friends," during a trip to the Northern Mariana Islands in 1997.

"The notion that Abramoff was a close friend who wielded influence over me is absolutely untrue," DeLay writes. "Jack Abramoff and I were not close personal friends. I met with him only occasionally, in fact less frequently than numerous others who brought issues before Congress — never did he receive preferential treatment. To be certain, I knew nothing about the crimes for which he has pled guilty."

Meanwhile, Fort Bend Now also covered the letter, but carries more reaction from Lampson's camp:

U.S. Rep. Tom DeLay sent a letter to thousands of constituents this week denying he’s been involved in any wrong-doing with Jack Abramoff, and denying a close friendship with the scandal-tainted former lobbyist.

According to a Thursday report in Roll Call, DeLay's campaign mailed out a nine-page letter in the Sugar Land congressman's home district, which includes much of Fort Bend County, in an effort to blunt allegations about his relationship with Abramoff and campaign contribution-related charges brought against him in Travis County.

The campaign manager for former Democratic congressman Nick Lampson, who's running against DeLay, said the letter amounts to a lie.

Mike Malaise said DeLay "lied to his constituents about his relationship with Jack Abramoff. I don't like using that word and I wish there was a better way to say it, but there isn't. He lied, plain and simple."

...

Roll Call called DeLay's mass mailing to constituents "a critical move" in DeLay's campaign to gain a 12th term in office. The newspaper quoted sources close to DeLay saying he hopes to raise $9 million for his campaign, while Lampson reportedly intends to raise $5 million.

"A final word on Jack Abramoff: the notion that he was a close friend who wielded influence over me is absolutely untrue," DeLay reportedly wrote in the letter. "As Whip and Majority Leader, I met with many people who brought issues before Congress and sought support of both Republicans and Democrats."

"The reality is, Jack Abramoff and I were not close personal friends," DeLay wrote in the letter. "I met with him only occasionally, in fact less frequently than numerous others who brought issues before Congress – never did he receive preferential treatment. To be certain, I knew nothing about the crimes for which he has pled guilty."

Abramoff pled guilty in early January to federal charges of tax evasion, fraud and conspiracy to bribe public officials.

"Tom Delay didn't forget his trips with Jack Abramoff to exotic locations like St. Andrews golf course in Scotland," Lampson's campaign said in a prepared statement. "It didn't simply slip his mind that the trip to Scotland was paid for by Jack Abramoff's credit card. DeLay is purposely misleading voters. No amount of explanation, rationalization or excuse-making can hide that fact."

"Nick's been hanging out with his Hollywood liberal donors for too long and needs a Texas-sized reality check," said DeLay campaign spokeswoman Shannon Flaherty. "He's lobbing these very nasty, personal attacks at Congressman DeLay for being candid, open, and honest with the voters, while Nick's running around the country with Nancy Pelosi, MoveOn.org, and labor unions, and hiding it from Texas voters."

Fort Bend Now allows comments -- like a blog -- and this article has a running comment thread.

I didn't get Delay's letter. If anyone wants to forward me a copy, I'll post it.

UPDATE: AP coverage here.

A thought on citations

2006-02-12T20:34:00.000-08:00

I was thinking about this blog the other day, and realized that I wasn't necessarily always quoting from news sources inside the district.

The problem with that is that you might be getting a much different view of the news from Texas 22 than the voters are.

So, in order to make the blog a reflection of the news that voters will see, most posts from now on will probably quote the Houston Chronicle. It's undeniably the most influential newspaper in district 22, and newspapers tend to set the story for local TV news coverage.

Here's what I expect to cite in the upcoming months, by frequency:
1. Houston Chronicle
2. AP
3. Smaller Houston/suburban papers
4. National coverage, when relevant.
5. Other Texas newspapers, for comparison with how they frame the story.

Campbell on the air

2006-02-09T18:09:00.000-08:00

Tom Campbell is on the air, as a source tells me that Campbell ads have been spotted today on cable. I almost never watch TV unless the NFL or US Soccer is on, so I greatly appreciate the tip.

You can view "rough edits" of Campbell's TV spots on his website. Here are some dirty transcripts I worked up while in class:

Commercial one:
Campbell, on screen, flannel shirt, in what appears to be his study: I'm Tom Campbell. A lot has changed in our community, and change requires new leaders.

Other images on screen as Campbell narrates: Today some of the best and brightest have come to join us from other countries, Nasa is an integral part of our district. We need to provide economic growth for jobs as well as infrastructure to support that growth.

Random images of Campbell meeting folks: We cannot move forward with leaders who are distracted. I'm running for the future, our children's future, but I need your help. Vote for Tom Campbell, it's time to get back to the business that's important to us.

Commercial two:
Person 1: Integrity.
Person 2: Integrity.
Person 3: Integrity
Person 4: He's a man of integrity.
Anncr: Why do we need Tom Campbell in Congress?
Person 5: Tom Campbell is a man of integrity.
Person 6: Integrity and character
Person 7: We are raising our children in a challenging world and we need leaders who will be our examples.
Person 8: I'm worried about my children's future and I want leaders they can look up to.
Person 9: We need leaders that are concerned about our issues, and not about their own problems.
Person 10: Tom Campbell is a conservative at heart
Person 11: It's time for a change.
Person 12: It's time for a change in Washington.

They are a little fuzzy, presumably intentionally to give it a warm affect.

It's surprising to me that they aren't running any bio spots at all and the spots didn't overly impress me, however I'm a big fan of the idea that you can't judge media spots effectively until you've viewed an entire campaign. Nothing in campaigns happen in a vacuum. Good consultants weave it all together by the end of the campaign.

To date, I haven't heard of any direct mail pieces being dropped in the district by Campbell, which seems quite odd to me. Perhaps it is because of this (from a well-researched piece in the Houston Press):

With just three months to go before the primary, it's probably too late for Campbell to start a direct-mail campaign. Dick Richards, a former three-term chairman of the Utah Republican Party who was named chairman of the Republican National Committee during Reagan's first presidential term, is advising Campbell on jump-starting a grassroots campaign.

I'm thoroughly baffled. It is not true that three months is to late for direct mail, but it seems that Campbell or someone connected to his campaign must have suggested to the reporter that direct mail wasn't a good idea. If so, then perhaps Campbell's strategy is largely based on TV/radio spots. It doesn't seem to me like he's going to raise enough money for that to be very effective.

This post is pretty rough, but I need to go get other stuff done.

UPDATE: Right after I put this post up, I noticed that CQ just mentioned Campbell's spots as well. Apparently the second spot will run much less than the first, and the buy is indeed on local cable TV.

RANDOM THOUGHT WHILE UPDATING: Who thinks DeLay doesn't go on TV at all during the primary? It wouldn't surprise me.

Entire Hardball district 22 transcript available

2006-02-09T14:51:00.000-08:00

I've posted the entire transcript that Hardball did on district 22. Because blogger doesn't allow me to do extended posts and I didn't want to take up so much space right now at the top of the blog, I've backdated the post.

Money, Money, Money

2006-02-08T18:48:00.000-08:00

Tom DeLay
Raised 894,246
Spent 612,823
Cash on Hand 1,445,433

Nick Lampson
Raised 759,563
Spent 157,274
Cash on Hand1,291,554

Tom Campbell
Raised 58,054
Spent 4,674
Cash on Hand 53,380

No numbers from Pat Baig.

Hotline excerpts:

Ex-NOAA General Counsel Tom Campbell (R) raised $58K -- "almost all of it from his own pocket" -- in the final week of '05, and said he has raised "twice as much since he closed the books" for '05. Campbell, who is expecting to spend $400K in his bid to unseat Rep. Tom DeLay (R), is also counting on more contributions "from disaffected voters." Thus far, Campbell has contributed $51.5K of his own money to his campaign, and has spent about $5K. Campbell, on raising money: "It's easier than expected. There are a lot of people that are fed up with what's going on in Washington right now. I actually had a fellow come to my door with a $250 check that I hardly knew. ... He thought I was [a] credible candidate, and was against Mr. DeLay." DeLay is also facing two other candidates who are considered "long shots," unlike Campbell, who has a respectable GOP resume and worked in the Bush 41 admin. "Frequent" candidate/atty Mike Fjetland (R) has raised $34,270 so far, of which $20K was personally contributed by Fjetland, and has $2,170 CoH (Gamboa, AP, 1/31).

Dems taunted Rep. Tom DeLay (R) on 2/1 "for managing only a bare fundraising lead over" ex-Rep. Nick Lampson (D), and GOPers "countered that the challenger has kept pace only with help from Hollywood liberals such a Barbara Streisand." New campaign reports show DeLay raised $880K in the 4thQ, while Lampson raised $759K and has $1.3M in the bank. DeLay's camp was referring to $1K donations from Streisand and actor/director Rob Reiner. DeLay spokesperson Shannon Flaherty: "It sounds like Lampson's running more to represent the Screen Actors Guild than the 22nd." Lampson manager Mike Malaise suggested DeLay's fundraising was "nothing to brag about" (Gillman, DMN, 2/2).

Campbell has raised $150k ($51k of which was his own money) by the end of January by his own account. I don't see how he's going to spend his goal of $400k, when the primary is only four weeks away.

Excerpts from DeLay Hardball interview by Chris Matthews

2006-02-08T18:43:00.000-08:00

Matthews: "Here you are fighting a tough election. Do you think it's going to be a tough one?"
DeLay: "It's going to be a very tough one. It's going to be a national election. We have all the MoveOn.org's down here. They've been down here for over a year. All the leftists groups have been down here...doing the telephones. This is a national campaign."

Matthews: "Is the vote for this House seat, your seat, as a member of leadership and a very powerful Republican, is this about a national decision or is this about a local decision?"
DeLay: "No this is a national decision. The Democrats have been planning this for a long time. They announced it-they announced their politics of personal destruction two years ago and the character assassination is part of their strategy. They don't have an agenda and so they're trying to get the House back by destroying people and their families."

Matthews: "Why do these rank and file Democrats make you a target? Why do they hate you?"
DeLay: "Well I hope that they hate me because I'm effective, because I get things done. We've had an eleven year run of a Republican majority doing things that I'm incredibly proud of...cutting taxes, strong national defense, welfare reform, balancing the budget, paying down on the debt. I mean, one thing after another, we've been effective on it and the democrats don't like it."

DeLay, on the trial: "I have demanded my rights to a speedy trial; unfortunately Ronnie Earle is filing frivolous appeals to drag it out as long as he wants. He's been dragging my name through the mud for three years now and he's going to try to drag it out, try to influence the election, that's the way he operates."

Excerpts from National Journal.

Joshua Micah Marshall interviews Lampson

2006-02-08T17:41:00.000-08:00

Lefty blogger Joshua Micah Marshall interviewed Nick Lampson:

TPM: What is the case you're making to the people of the 22nd District why they should dump their congressman, who was until recently the most powerful guy in Congress? What is the case you're making to them?

Lampson: Well, first of all, they deserve to have a representative who is making headlines for the right reasons -- someone who will take a bipartisan approach to Washington and do the right thing for Texas and for that congressional district.

It's important that we work on issues that will make a difference for them – and Homeland Security, and fiscal responsibility, and education and health care are the kinds of issues that certainly I have worked on, and that I think is what the people, not just of the district, but of the nation, want us to be doing.

Tom DeLay had the opportunity to do that. But he spent his time doing something else, something different. I want to work on those issues every day that I’m in Congress.

TPM: So what is the other thing – when you say "something different?"

Lampson: He was more about either his personal wealth, or his personal power, or his party's power. He clearly did some things that are -- not just should be, but are being questioned. Whether or not something comes of it remains to be seen as they go through the process.

Standing up for sweatshops and sweatshop owners in the Marianas islands and then coming back following that trip with Jack Abramoff -- and the involvement with Jack Abramoff out there -- coming back to the floor of the House of Representatives and defending these actions on the floor of the House. Clearly that was something different from paying attention to the needs of the people of the 22nd Congressional District.

Using the lobbyists for his own personal benefit, taking a $56,000 golfing trip to Scotland. That is clearly something not in the best interest of the people of the 22nd Congressional District.

And then, just to pick another thing, the million dollars that was contributed by Russian oil people through a London law firm that came into a charity that DeLay had set up – ultimately some of the funding was used for the purchase of a building that he uses for his political activities. Those have to be reasonable questions to be asking.

Whether or not he's guilty, that's for the courts and the ethics committees to decide. But the questions certainly ought to be asked. And certainly those were things that he was doing, rather than attending to the business of the 22nd Congressional District and the citizens of the United States of America.

He was too focused on his special interests.

TPM: Now, this election as a whole, for the Democrats as a whole -- ethics and political corruption are going to be defining themes. National Democrats are trying to balance, 'how much are we against the amount of sleaze that the Republican majority has brought to Congress' versus a positive agenda, whether that's health care, fiscal responsibility, on the foreign policy, front, whatever.

Now, you're up there front and center with the man who literally and figuratively was the leader of what the Republican majority created. How are you balancing that? How are you balancing what you were just talking about -- in terms of all these accusations of wrongdoing against Tom DeLay -- versus the positive agenda – on policy issues, on health care, on fiscal responsibility?

Lampson: I want to make sure that this race is about those issues. I don't need to talk about Tom DeLay. And I try not to talk about Tom DeLay in the district. People are reading about those things that he was involved with. So I can concentrate on the legislation that I worked on when I was in the House of Representatives, my efforts on task forces that dealt with Homeland Security, with education and health care specifically, the work I did on creating the Congressional Caucus on Missing and Exploited Children. If I can concentrate on those things, then I believe that I will win the confidence of the people to put me there.

Certainly there is a question of integrity that could come up in that comparison. And I think that I bring something different to the table. I hope I bring a different kind of openness and a willingness to look at the needs of the people of my district first.

TPM: Another question. Not as much as Tom DeLay, but over the last five years, President Bush nationally has become a very polarizing figure. His poll numbers are fairly low now, they're right around the low forties, forty percent, something like that.

You're running in his home state, in a district that is, I would say, at best a swing district. There are a lot of Republicans in the district . . . A race like this against someone as prominent as Tom DeLay has sort of an in-district and a national dimension. So where are you on President Bush?

Lampson: I've been campaigning with him since, I think, 1992. I think that was the first time that I met him and started showing up at different places when we were campaigning for different offices.

I made a comment, right after his first election, before he was sworn into office when I was asked by a reporter whether or not he would be able to pull this divided congress together. And I said that I think that no matter what his interests were in trying to accomplish that, that there were other forces in play that would prevent him from doing it. And what I was referring to, and I even said the name at that time: Tom DeLay has caused such a polarization and such a lack of civility within our congress that regardless of what he was able to do, the president was able to do, they were going to stop him from doing it. And I believe that.

So I believe that there have been those who have, not intentionally, I don't believe they intentionally set out to divide it, but they certainly intentionally set out to win their issues. I think they're preventing him from accomplishing a lot of what perhaps he would like to be doing.

TPM: Preventing President Bush?

Lampson: Yeah.

TPM: On a few basic issues – the President has been in office for five years – what would you say from your perspective are his biggest successes and his biggest mistakes in office on basic points of policy?

Lampson: Let me start with his mistakes. I think that certainly you have to consider that we still have problems with access to health care and Social Security in this country. They're both huge problems for us. 46 million Americans don't have access to health care. And the bill that we passed -- I didn't vote for it -- but the Medicare bill that passed in 2003 was a piece of legislation that put the resources of the nation behind the pharmaceutical manufacturers more than it did the people who we were trying to help.

I think the foreign policy, the position, the reputation of the United States in the eyes of much of the rest of the world is significantly diminished and so I think you can't look at that positively.

Maybe from his perspective -- and I voted for some of the tax cuts -- from the President's perspective, he'd probably say that some of his biggest successes have been to pass the tax cutting legislation that they had. I believe very strongly that we need to have tax cuts, but to be put in an area where it's going to help small businesses, where it's going to help people who have less rather than those who have more.

I guess that's at first blush my answer to that.

A couple quick thoughts:

1. It's about the incumbent. Elections are usually about incumbents -- and if voters don't like the incumbent, whether the alternative is better -- and that will be the case here. What Lampson says and how he campaigns is probably a relatively small factor in whether he wins in November or not. The outcome of legal problems is the biggest factor, of course.

2. The funny. Lampson says, "I've been campaigning with [George W. Bush] since, I think, 1992."

I'm sure that's news to W. Perhaps his statement is slightly out of context or Lampson simply misspoke, but the way he phrased it made me laugh.

3. The balancing act. Lampson has to pull off several balancing acts. He says, "I don't need to talk about Tom DeLay," but that's what he spent most of the interview doing. He knows he doesn't need to attack DeLay -- his allies will do that whether he wants them to or not -- because he wants to represent himself as a down-to-earth moderate, not a partisan. A partisan won't win, but he couldn't resist the urge to attack (eg, saying DeLay had used power for "personal wealth," which is a charge I haven't really seen anywhere else and for which I can't find much support) in this interview.

Lampson also has to balance how he speaks about Bush, not depressing. Saying that he campaigned "with him" seems somewhat akin to the ad that Daschle ran showing him hugging Bush. It's an interesting juxtaposition.

Texas district 22 shorts

2006-02-08T17:08:00.000-08:00

1. CBN News -- a Christian network -- has excerpts of an interview with DeLay, where he talks about faith.

2 Maria Recio reports on DeLay's transition out of the leadership. There's not really anything new here though.

3. Ronnie Earle has continued to subpoena more documents, this time of the state Republican party. DeLay attorney Dick Deguerin says the subpoenas are not enforceable.

PSA for Fort Bend politicos

2006-02-08T17:06:00.000-08:00

Chris Elam has made available a list of all Fort Bend County precincts with some basic facts about each precinct.

It's a pretty good resource for those of you who like to have fun with Excel and precincts.

Delay and NASA

2006-02-08T13:59:00.000-08:00

Roxana Tiron picks up on the DeLay -- NASA angle:

In a move that could help his reelection campaign, former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay (R-Texas) is expected to be appointed to an Appropriations subcommittee today that has jurisdiction over spending for space programs.

As of press time yesterday, a source said DeLay would reclaim his spot on the Appropriations Committee while taking seats on one subcommittee dealing with homeland security and another that funds NASA.

Those assignments could boost the indicted lawmaker's campaign against former Rep. Nick Lampson (D-Texas).

DeLay's district, which he helped redraw in 2004, includes NASA's Johnson Space Center. DeLay has been known to boost NASA's interests in the Houston area.

If DeLay is cleared of the charges brought by Texas prosecutor Ronnie Earle and defeats Lampson and Republicans maintain their majority, he could become the chairman of the Science, State, Justice, Commerce and Related Agencies Appropriations Subcommittee in 2007 when Rep. Frank Wolf (R-Va.) will relinquish the gavel.

Since the area around Clear Lake and NASA is now a bigger part of the district than Sugar Land, it's a smart move.

DeLay, of course, made a point of saying that he was going to reclaim his Approp spot when he originally resigned from the leadership.

Boehner's election not good for Texas

2006-02-06T15:57:00.000-08:00

Random thought as I get back into the swing of blogging: John Boehner's election as House Majority Leader is bad for Texas' influence in Congress.

Here's a breakdown of Texas Republicans and who they backed in the Majority Whip race:

Blunt:
Barton
Bonilla
Brady
Burgess
Carter
Conaway
Culberson
Gohmert
Granger
Hall
McCaul
Neugebauer
Poe
Smith

Boehner:
Kenny Marchant
Sam Johnson
Pete Sessions

Shadegg:
Hensarling

Uncommitted:
DeLay
Paul
Thornberry

Backing the right horse definitely matters in House politics. The House leadership holds great sway in deciding committee assignments and committee chairs. These two things are the source of cloue in the House/

So now Texas has lost the clout of DeLay as Majority Leader, and we don't have any clout with the new Majority Leader. That's not good for Texas.

Been busy

2006-02-03T14:43:00.000-08:00

I've been busy with life. My apologies. Until I start making more than pennies a day from this blog, it will probably not be my first priority in life. Heh.

I may post some over the weekend, but this weekend should be pretty busy too. But I have some posts planned for both here and Rick Perry vs World.

As Arnold would say, I'll be back.

Entire transcript of DeLay show

2006-02-01T14:40:00.000-08:00

Using my LexisNexis skills, here is the entire transcript from the Tom DeLay segment on Hardball from late January. I apologize in advance for any formatting errors, but I've spent enough time trying to re-format it already.

CHRIS MATTHEWS, MSNBC ANCHOR: It's election time. Will Tom DeLay hold on in Texas? Will Rick Santorum remain a senator from Pennsylvania? Will Hillary Clinton confirm her crown as leader of the Democrats? And bottom line, will George W. Bush, who led the country into Iraq, be punished for an unpopular war? Tonight it begins. Let`s play HARDBALL.

Good evening, I'm Chris Matthews. Welcome to HARDBALL. Tonight we're kicking off our official "Decision 2006" coverage of the midterm elections and the stakes are big for both parties. President Bush is coming off the worst year of his presidency from continued problems with the war in Iraq, a failed response to Hurricane Katrina and trunks of political corruption within his own party.

Tomorrow night the president will fight for his party`s future from the bully pulpit in his make it or break it State of the Union address. MSNBC and MSNBC.com will have full coverage of the speech, from the speeches to the politicians, to the blogs.

The Democrats are focusing on what they call a culture of corruption and point to the Abramoff scandal as proof that the Republican-controlled Congress has been bought off by lobbyists. But polls show most Americans care more about national security, an issue Republicans continue to control. With a new "Washington Post" poll showing two-thirds of Americans feel safer now than they did before 9/11.

The bottom line is, Americans may agree with Democrats on the issues, but the party suffers from a lack of leadership and lackluster direction. More on the political battle lines being drawn in a moment, but first we launch "Decision 2006" tonight with the most important race in the country.

The Lone Star state of Texas has 32 congressional districts. This November, one of the most closely watched races in the country will play out near Houston, where Congressman Tom DeLay has won easily for 20 years. Today the man known as the hammer, however, faces what could be his toughest fight ever.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

REP. TOM DELAY (R), TEXAS: I am very, very proud of the record of the Republican majority in the House of Representatives.

GERALD BIRNBERG, DEMOCRATIC CHAIRMAN, HARRIS COUNTY: If we can get rid of somebody as entrenched as Tom DeLay has been in this 22nd congressional district, that says Democrats can win anywhere in the nation.

ERIC THODE, GOP CHAIRMAN, FORT BEND COUNTY: Tom DeLay, over the last two years, has re-dedicated himself to making sure that the district knows exactly what's going on, what his office is doing, and what his presence in Washington means for district 22.

MATTHEWS (voice-over): It's shaping up to be a heavyweight championship fight for one of the most powerful, most polarizing Republicans in the country. As House majority whip and later House majority leader, Tom DeLay was a Republican superstar who led the Republican revolution.

His problems began in 2005, when he was indicted in Texas by Travis County District Attorney Ronnie Earle, a Democrat, on charges of money laundering of campaign donations.

RONNIE EARLE, DISTRICT ATTORNEY, TRAVIS COUNTY: If Tom DeLay has not committed a crime, then he has nothing to worry about.

MATTHEWS: Republican rules back in Washington forced him to resign from his role as majority leader. Then came the Abramoff scandal in Washington. His friendship with lobbyist Jack Abramoff, who just pled guilty to federal charges of conspiracy, tax evasion and mail fraud, is another hot potato for DeLay, as is a trip he accepted to Britain in 2000, with golf at St. Andrews in Scotland, that was underwritten by clients of Abramoff.

In the midst of this political firestorm, Tom DeLay was calm and confident when we met in Texas recently. He's a veteran of some of the toughest political battles in Washington and he says he knows who`s out to destroy him.

DELAY: Democrats have been planning this for a long time. They announced their politics of personal destruction two years ago. Their character assassination is part of their strategy. They don't have an agenda, and so they're trying to get the House back by destroying people in their families.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: How do you feel, Congressman DeLay.

BOB STEIN, POLLSTER, RICE UNIVERSITY: The number one problem is the congressman, himself. Any other Republican would probably win this seat, handily. But right now, Tom DeLay has got a problem and it's all about Tom DeLay.

MATTHEWS (on camera): Do you have to have an acquittal before the election to clear this air?

DELAY: I would like one, but my constituents know what's going on here. They`ve looked at this case, they understand it. They've been very, very supportive. They know what Ronnie Earle is, a runaway district attorney that's abusing his power.

MATTHEWS: The Abramoff thing in Washington, does that bother you?

DELAY: I think it's really unfortunate that they broke the law and they've been found guilty breaking it. I had nothing to do with that. I've done nothing wrong. I haven't broken any laws.

MATTHEWS: Are you worried that the Democrats will be able to use pictures like golfing in Scotland to bring you down?

DELAY: Sure, they'll try all that. I mean, they want to lie about what's going on. I'm very involved in the international affairs against the religious persecution in China or getting persecuted Jews out of Russia. I've been involved in a lot of foreign affairs. Yes, when I go over somewhere for that, I take a day off or half a day off, and I play golf.

MATTHEWS: But there's no religious persecution in Scotland?

DELAY: No, but Margaret Thatcher was in England and I met with a lot of conservative organizations.

MATTHEWS: Do you think that's unfair to say that you went over there on a junket?

DELAY: It's incredibly unfair.

MATTHEWS: Why? Who paid for the trip?

DELAY: A legitimate conservative organization.

MATTHEWS: But wasn't there a pass-through?

DELAY: No, there was no pass-through.

MATTHEWS: They came up with the money themselves?

DELAY: That's exactly right. They raise their money themselves.

MATTHEWS: That public policy group?

DELAY: Exactly right.

MATTHEWS: So you don't have any problem with that trip?

DELAY: None at all.

MATTHEWS: Nobody's asked you about it down here?

DELAY: Not really, no.

MATTHEWS: Is Tom DeLay corrupt?

NICK LAMPSON, DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE, 22ND DISTRICT: I won't answer that question, I don't know. I think that's up to a court, part of the ethics committee. I would certainly hope that the values that I grew up with would not bring the kind of challenges to me ever that have been brought before him.

My grandfather bought this piece of land, my mother's father did, and farmed it.

MATTHEWS (voice-over): Nick Lampson is a former four-term Texas Democratic congressman who says he's the right person right now to beat DeLay in November.

(on camera): Would you be running against Mr. DeLay for this seat if he wasn't in trouble? Or is this an opportunity that you jumped on because of all his ethics bad news?

LAMPSON: I made this decision back in May and it was well before there was an indictment.

MATTHEWS: We've got a poll that shows that half the people, only half the people who supported Mr. DeLay last time, are going to vote for him this time. Do you think it's that bad for him right now?

LAMPSON: I can tell you that it`s very good for me.

I`ve wanted to welcome you to the neighborhood...

MATTHEWS (voice-over): ... Though born and raised in Texas, Lampson owns property over 100 miles away from the 22nd District. He moved here last April, paying rent to his aunt, so he could live in her house and vote in the district.

DELAY: He lives in Beaumont. He's the only Democrat they've been able to get to run and he claims a local address for his home. I`m sure we'll be able to explain that to my constituents.

MATTHEWS (on camera): You're a Democrat.

LAMPSON: I`m a Democrat.

MATTHEWS: OK, let's talk about that, OK? Is President Bush an honest man?

LAMPSON: Certainly. I've campaigned with him, I believe that he...

MATTHEWS: ... So he's not part of this culture corruption the Democrats are all talking about?

LAMPSON: I`m not going to make any kind of an accusation like that.

MATTHEWS: So you don't think there is a culture of corruption -- we hear that from Nancy Pelosi, we hear it from the Democratic leaders. There's a Republican culture of corruption in Washington.

LAMPSON: The culture of corruption has existed, in my mind, among some people. And it doesn't matter to me whether they are Democrat and Republican. If somebody's broken the ethics or the law, then they need to be punished for it.

MATTHEWS: You're asking the voters here to elect a Democrat to Congress, to send a Democrat, a person -- will you vote for Nancy Pelosi of San Francisco to be speaker of the House?

LAMPSON: Likely.

MATTHEWS: Is there a question?

LAMPSON: No -- if she's the one that is...

MATTHEWS: ... Well she's the leader of the Democratic Party in the House, so you will have to vote for her if you're going to be a Democrat.

LAMPSON: I could be comfortable doing that. I`m looking for good ideas and I want those ideas not to be to the left or to the right. If we can move our district forward and do the things for my constituency that will make a difference in their quality of life, which I've already proven I can do.

I am very comfortable trying to stick with issues that -- and the values of Texans here in southeast Texas that I was raised with and that I believe I am very much in sync with.

MATTHEWS: Tom DeLay, you're not in this business for the money.

DELAY: No.

MATTHEWS: You live modestly.

DELAY: Yes.

MATTHEWS: You commute back and forth from Washington to Houston, Texas.

DELAY: Yes.

MATTHEWS: Why? What drives you ever day?

DELAY: What I believe in, the Constitution of the United States. Ronald Reagan got me involved in this. It's -- I fight every day for what I believe in. A strong national security, protecting American family values. I want to see this country led in a different direction than when I found it, when I got into politics 20 some years ago.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

MATTHEWS: Will Tom DeLay hang on to his seat or will the hammer go down swinging? Charlie Cook of the "Cook Political Report" will be joining us when we come book. And HARDBALL's coverage of tomorrow night's State of the Union gets an early start tonight at 7:00 Eastern. NBC`s moderator of "Meet the Press," Tim Russert will be with us with the results of a new NBC News/"Wall Street Journal" poll. It`s fascinating. You're watching HARDBALL on MSNBC.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE (voice-over): President George H.W. Bush wove some humor into his State of the Union address with a little help from the first lady.

GEORGE H.W. BUSH, FORMER PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Thank you very much for that warm reception. You know, the big buildup this address has had, I wanted to make sure it would be a big hit, but I couldn't convince Barbara to deliver it for me.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MATTHEWS: Welcome back to HARDBALL. Our decision 2006 coverage starts tonight. It`s early in this midterm election year, but already there are many hot races shaping up.

Charlie Cook is a NBC political analyst of course and publisher of "The Cook Political Report."

Charlie, we just interviewed Tom DeLay down in Texas. I mean, we had it on tape there obviously. And a couple points came up. I want you to tell what you think might be decisive.

When I asked him about Scotland--let`s take a look at this tape--when I asked him about Scotland and whether he was over there fighting religious--little sarcastic--religious repression in Scotland, here was his answer.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MATTHEWS: Are you worried that the Democrats will be able to use iconic pictures--that's probably a fancy word--but graphic pictures, like golfing in Scotland to bring you down?

TOM DELAY, FMR. HOUSE MAJORITY LEADER: I'll bet sure. They'll try all that. I mean, they want to lie about what's going on. I'm very involved in the international affairs whether it be Israel or against the religious persecution in China or for Taiwan against China or getting persecuted Jews out of Russia.

I've been involved in a lot of foreign affairs. Yes, when I go over somewhere for that I take a day off or a half a day off, and I play golf.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MATTHEWS: Well, they skipped the part in that tape about where I asked is there religious repression in Scotland. That is the problem.

CHARLIE COOK, NBC POLITICAL ANALYST: You know, there might be a good answer for your question, but that wasn't it. I mean, I hope the next time somebody asks him that question, there's a little bit better answer because that just didn`t make any sense.

MATTHEWS: He said he met with former Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, who`s been out of office for more than--well over a decade and is a very elderly woman. And that's England, by the way.

COOK: Not Scotland.

MATTHEWS: It's a little weak. Well, we'll see. Let me ask you about the other guys with problems. Nick Lampson is a former Congressman. He was knocked out of his seat largely, I guess, through the redistricting by Tom DeLay. He`s traveling 100 miles for this seat.

He's established his residence, his voting residence, his tax residence, I suppose, at his aunt's house. That is where he received us, and, by the way, told us that was his home. Is that going to be a problem, carpet bagging?

COOK: It can be. It can be.

The thing is right now this race is Tom DeLay against Tom DeLay, and when it is DeLay versus DeLay, DeLay loses. You ask if in a poll DeLay versus a Democrat and he's way ahead. You ask DeLay against Nick Lampson and Lampson, the Democrat, is ahead.

But when it becomes really a race between DeLay and Lampson and they start making Lampson's voting record in Congress an issue and basically the opportunism and carpet bagging and all that, this is going to be an awfully, awfully close race.

MATTHEWS: I asked him if he was comfortable, Mr. Lampson, in casting his first vote as a new member of Congress for Nancy Pelosi of San Francisco. I got to imagine that`s a problem in Texas.

COOK: Yes, and the answer was kind of a blur. Yes, you do want to do that.

MATTHEWS: But don't voters know that if you elect a Democrat, they vote for Pelosi, they vote for Harry Reid if they are Senators, that comes with the business?

COOK: Actually, I've seen southern Democrats who didn`t vote the first vote. Remember Buddy Roemer refused to vote for Tip O`Neill? I mean, sometimes...

MATTHEWS: Yes, but that is the formal way you identify your party is who you vote for leader. That's how it`s done.

COOK: But somehow Roemer got committee assignments.

MATTHEWS: Yes.

COOK: So, I mean, you know, where there's a will, there is a way. But the point is these kinds of questions are going to come out in the campaign, and it's not going to be Tom DeLay versus Tom DeLay. And that's why I think this is going to be a lot more competitive race than some of the polls today suggest.

Hardball on DeLay

2006-01-30T14:02:00.000-08:00

Chris Matthews has an interview with Tom DeLay right now (4pm) and again at 6pm, Central time.

Liberal groups funding anti-DeLay ad won't disclose donors

2006-01-26T09:14:00.000-08:00

Samantha Levin files this from the Chronicle's DC bureau:

The two liberal groups behind the TV ads that criticized some of Rep. Tom DeLay's political funding connections paid for the commercials in a way that avoids mandatory disclosure of their donors.

The groups, whose ads ran on Houston-area stations that reach DeLay's suburban district, also refused to voluntarily disclose the names to the Houston Chronicle.

The Public Campaign Action Fund and the Campaign for America's Future said they used the nonprofit arms of their organizations to buy about $80,000 worth of broadcast time. Such organizations, unlike national political action committees and other campaign groups, do not have to list their contributors for the federal government.

...

Roger Hickey, co-director of the Campaign for America's Future, said the group "discloses exactly what is required."

Its tax returns show how much was received in contributions, but not donor names or what they gave.

The groups denied the Chronicle's request for a list of top contributors.

According to tax records, the Campaign for America's Future got more than $1 million in donations during 2004 and gave $50,000 to the liberal group People for the American Way.

The Public Campaign Action Fund has taken more than $1 million since 2000. For 2004, the latest figures available, the group reported spending about 80 percent of its $155,000 in revenues to "promote non-partisan reform in the funding processes for political elections."

...

DeLay spokeswoman Shannon Flaherty said that the law might allow the groups to shield the names of those who funded the ads,"but they can't hide their liberal ties to George Soros and the AFL-CIO, and their agenda of electing Nancy Pelosi Democrats to Congress."

California Rep. Pelosi leads Democrats in the House. Soros contributed millions to an effort to defeat President Bush in the 2004 elections.

The liberal groups' 30-second ads in Houston, which aired through Wednesday, called for the resignation of DeLay, R-Sugar Land. They cite contributions to him from disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff and a golf trip DeLay took with Abramoff, who has pleaded guilty to corruption charges and is cooperating with a federal investigation of influence peddling.

...

The original version was slated to begin airing Jan. 11 on KTRK (Channel 13), KRIV (Channel 26), KHOU (Channel 11) and KPRC (Channel 2). The stations balked after DeLay's campaign lawyers complained that the ad was false and warned that the stations could face legal action if they aired it.

The groups revised the ad last week with more detailed information about donations to DeLay and more complete excerpts from cited newspaper stories. All but KTRK aired the spot.

There will be many more spots like these.

George Will on DeLay

2006-01-26T09:03:00.000-08:00

George Will came down to Houston and files this column:

Out here, where the tendrils of Houston's growing exurbs reach for open ground, sits Rio Bend, a cluster of new houses and other facilities for parents having difficult times with troubled foster children -- difficulties like those Tom and Christine DeLay experienced with several teenagers they took into their home. Rio Bend was built by the DeLays, with help from friends, of sorts.

She, an acerbic realist from south Texas, says more houses are planned by their charitable organization, but: "I hated to lose the leadership position because it helps me to raise money for those kids." Note her agreeably guileless acknowledgment that some friends of Rio Bend may not have been seized by simple altruism. She shares her husband's credo -- power is useful and should be used -- and knows the moral ambiguities it can involve.

...

Earmarks? Although recently "they got out of hand," they are, he says, necessary and proper because it is best to have spending dictated by a politician who knows his district's needs: "We are an equal branch of government -- why should we let a bureaucrat decide?" He says that in a state such as Illinois, which is dominated by Democrats "who play hardball," earmarks are the only way even House Speaker Dennis Hastert can get highway money spent in his district.

...

Referring to his trial on campaign finance charges brought by a notoriously political Democratic prosecutor, DeLay says, with a confidence that might be misplaced but clearly is unfeigned, "I'll be acquitted by the end of April." Then he says he will secure a 12th term, winning "the most expensive congressional race ever ." The national Democratic Party and several liberal groups -- already running ads and phone banks -- spend, well, liberally.

Because undecided voters are thin here -- he estimates they are about 13 percent of the district -- this election will be about mobilizing the faithful. So the piling on by his critics -- their wretched excesses in response to what they perceive to be his -- may help him.

No question that the DeLay campaign wants a polarized partisan race, because if this race is about Republicans vs. Democrats, then DeLay wins.

One thing I snipped was Will's statement that redistricting "ma[de] [DeLay's] district more Democratic in order to make others less so." A more precise statement is here. The district only got a few points more Democratic.

Not much happening

2006-01-25T21:56:00.000-08:00

And that's why I'm not posting.

A random walk down US 59*

2006-01-23T10:25:00.000-08:00

Lone Star Times publishes an email from Dr. Murray.

Meanwhile, Dr. Murray's son Keir, who worked this past summer for the Nick Lampson campaign, defends the poll at Houtopia.

I'm in class right now, so I probably won't get a chance to comment until this afternoon or tonight.

UPDATE: Charles Kuffner posts on the poll as well, with some of his own research.

*US 59, of course, is the freeway that connects Sugar Land to Houston.

Chronicle reader rep ignores substantive criticisms

2006-01-23T04:58:00.000-08:00

I didn't start blogging to do media criticism. In thirteen months of blogging at Perry vs World, I haven't criticized or cavilled. The only exception I can think of is when I offered an opinion that the state's reporters were not treating Kinky seriously enough, when it was becoming clear that he could be a credible candidate.

Nor did I start DeLay vs the World with any desire or expectation that I would have to criticize the media. However, the Chronicle clearly deserves it. They commissioned a poll that ended up being flawed. They did not recognize those flaws, and instead published the poll on the front page, including the most flawed results prominently in a graphic.

However, mistakes happen. What is truly sad is that that Chronicle will not admit mistake, instead choosing to stand behind the poll in its entirety, despite detailed entreaties from myself and others that they correct or clarifying their misleading reporting.

Chronicle reader rep James Campbell is given space in the Sunday op-ed section to defend the Chronicle's flawed survey (it's a survey, not a poll, but I often use the terms interchangably). Campbell's column delineates exactly how ignorant he is of the substantive criticism of the survey. Campbell clearly is not knowledgable about polling. Why he chose to offer his opinion on something on which he lacks knowledge, I will not speculate.

Let's go over the important substantive criticisms.

1. 28% of district voters voted straight ticket Republican in 2004. Those who study voting know that voting is a habit, and voting habits are very difficult to break. Thus, the Chronicle's reported poll result of 22% for DeLay would indicate that one in four straight ticket Republican voters won't vote straight ticket this election cycle, and that no one else would vote for DeLay. While I suppose that there are some scenarios that this could happen, they all involve DeLay being in jail.

In other words, this part of the poll doesn't reflect real-world realities. Good pollsters think long and hard about these issues before they put a poll into the field, because when a poll does not reflect real-world realities, then the poll is worthless.

2. They identified Steve Stockman as "a former Republican Congressman" in the general election question. This strongly overstates Stockman's general election support and undermines the accuracy of the results. Good pollsters think very carefully about how they label candidates, and a good poll would never label Stockman this way.

3. The reported primary figures are basically worthless when you combine the following two reasons:
a) the sample size makes the margin of error very large. Once you get past 5% margin of error, as this survey does, they are not accurate enough to be worthwhile.
b) 38% of registered voters in the Chronicle's survey claimed they were "certain" or "likely" to vote in the upcoming Republican primary. However, in 2004 only 0.65% actually voted. The huge, huge disparity between the two numbers means that it cannot be confidently said that the Chronicle's survey respondents represent the people who will actually vote in the Republican primary.

It is obvious that the people who the Chronicle claimed would vote in the Republican primary do not represent the people who actually vote in the Republican primary. According to the Chronicle's data, only 58% of the people who will vote in the Republican primary voted for Republican DeLay over Democrat Richard Morrison.

4. The survey undersamples Republicans. When you push include leaners in party totals, the partisan demographics are 36%D, 50%GOP, and 10% strict independent, in a district that is about 62-63% Republican. That's a pretty big discrepancy that is not easily explained.

Campbell utterly fails to address any of these points. Instead he offers this:

We invite readers to review the poll online. The dispassionate will agree that no matter how the numbers are analyzed, the emerging picture will show eroded support for DeLay in the district.

Moreover, the charge that the poll's methodology was flawed is inaccurate. Neither the Chronicle nor the pollsters deliberately distorted poll results. The poll did not use the entire sample, including Democrats, to measure DeLay's support in the GOP primary.

"The only data reported in the paper was from people in Distict 22 who said they were certain and likely to vote in the Republican primary," Murray said. "If you have a sample with 560 people total, that's usually when you report that the margin of error is plus or minus 4 percent. But if you look at a subgroup, like certain or likely Republican primary voters, that's just 213 people. Well, the margin of error is larger, probably about 7 percent at that level. Sometimes people (pollsters) aren't as consistent in pointing out that for subgroups, the error margins are larger."

Murray conceded that critics may have a valid point that the poll should have noted when its margin of error was greater for subgroups.

"What we did — and what the paper reported — was to look at the sample and interpret in terms of the primary, people who told us that they were, a) certain or likely to vote in the Republican primary ... . While everybody was asked, 'If you did vote in the Republican primary how would you vote?' we didn't use the data for the entire sample ... . It's a little bit confusing, but it's a misleading attack on the survey."

I have not heard anyone (including the DeLay campaign) argue that DeLay's poll numbers were not hurt by the news cycles preceeding the poll, as Campbell claims. The DeLay campaign, however, has vociferously complained that the Chronicle poll understates DeLay's Republican support. In this case, the DeLay campaign appears to be right. The Chronicle's polls on the Republican primary are statistically worthless.

Campbell argues that "[n]either the Chronicle nor the pollsters deliberately distorted poll results." I agree. Frankly, it appears that both the Chronicle and the pollsters rushed a poll into the field that they hadn't thought through. As a result, the numbers are flawed, ESPECIALLY the numbers that they've reported for the primary. The poll isn't deliberately distorted, but the poll and its attendant coverage has been very sloppy.

Murray simply refuses to address the fact that he polls 38% of registered voters for an election in which less than 1% vote. Anytime you do that, you ruin the reliability of your data. Murray should know that.

The Chronicle's steadfast refusal to address the substantive criticisms of this poll is a shame. If the Chronicle believes in the truth, they ought issue a correction that a) the reported Republican primary results cannot be supported and b) that, while DeLay's support surely has slipped after many negative news cycles, this poll has methodological errors which render the results imprecise.

Post-writing Memo: this post may be updated as time and candor allows. I'm not yet sure I got the tone right. My goal is that this post should incite the Chronicle to greater accuracy, not antagonize them.

Liberal 527 anti-DeLay revised ad to air on some stations

2006-01-22T11:01:00.000-08:00

Ruth Rendon -- Chron:

The revised ad calling for DeLay to resign his congressional post is set to air on KPRC-NBC (Channel 2) and KRIV-FOX (Channel 26), according to Campaign for America's Future, one of two liberal public interest groups that joined forces last week to run the ad.

...

It wasn't until the interest groups altered the ad that the two stations decided to air it.

KHOU-CBS (Channel 11) and KTRK-ABC (Channel 13) have said they will decide Monday whether they will show the ads.

Straight ticket voting in CD22

2006-01-19T16:48:00.000-08:00

My first thought when I saw the Chronicle poll showing DeLay at 22% was, "Wait, I bet that more than 22% voted straight ticket Republican in 2004 in CD22. If so, then the Chronicle's poll is kinda nonsense."

I was right. It turns out that 28% of the 2004 CD votes cast were straight ticket Republican votes, while 17% were straight ticket Democratic votes. So, unless 2006 is different than 2004, DeLay beats 22% based on straight ticket votes alone.**

In other words, the Chronicle's poll simply makes no sense on this issue.

Straight ticket R D
Brazoria 10793 5468
Fort Bend 38132 22806
Galveston 4963 8517
Harris 20989 9594
Total 74877 46385

Total votes R D*
Brazoria 18159 11728
Fort Bend 58444 46151
Galveston 9193 12377
Harris 64590 41778
Total 150,386 112,034

[The original version of this post had this data presented nicely in tables. However, Blogger was having some technical issues dealing with the tables, so I had to go to the ugly presentation above.]

There may be other conclusions that can be drawn from this data. If you think of any, let me know.

* In this case, the D is Richard Morrison. The R is Tom DeLay.

**Caveats:
1. If you think that normal straight-ticket Republican voters will want to not vote for DeLay so badly that they don't vote straight ticket, then this might not be true. I frankly doubt this to be true. Voting is a habit, and it's very difficult to break people of their voting habits.
2. If presidential election cycles feature much higher straight ticket voters than off-presidential elections (or if 2004 was simply anomalously high in straight ticket GOP percentage). I don't have any data on this, but I doubt that there is much difference.

The Chronicle responds...

2006-01-19T13:37:00.000-08:00

There's no news on this race, as far as I can find. So let's keep going with what seems to be growing as a story...

The Chronicle is continuing to stand completely behind a flawed poll that has been widely criticized by bloggers and two national pollsters. Today, National Journal's Blogometer noticed the story.

Chronicle reader rep James Campbell has posted on the controversy, but in a way that suggests that he really doesn't understand the problems and flaws of the poll (link via BlogHouston).

Meanwhile, LST publishes an email that conservative radio talker Edd Hendee sent in response to an email from Dr. Murray. I'm glad Dr. Murray is responding to Hendee, because both Dr. Stein, Dr. Murray, and Kristen Mack have ignored my emails.

I'm not sure why the Chronicle continues to stand by parts of a poll that are simply meaningless. For the Chronicle's sake, let's hope they issue a correction soon.

Chron/Stein/Murray survey, one more time

2006-01-18T14:42:00.000-08:00

My two previous analyses of the survey (here and here) were a little rushed, so I wanted to outline more clearly the main problems with the Chron/Stein/Murray poll.

Primary problems with the Chronicle's survey:

1. They identified Steve Stockman as "a former Republican Congressman" in the general election question. This strongly overstates Stockman's general election support in a way that hurts DeLay.

2. Given such a small sample size for the primary, the margin of error for the primary results becomes very large (Benzion reports that Dr. Hill says it would be about 9%).

3. 38% of registered voters of registered voters said they were "certain" or "likely" to vote in the Republican primary. In 2004, only 0.65% of registered voters actually voted in the GOP primary in CD22. What a huge discrepancy between who votes and who was surveyed.

The second and third points combined render the reporting on the survey's primary results meaningless.

It's quite clear that the Chronicle's poll doesn't ask the people who actually vote in Republican primaries in CD22. In fact, by surveying 38% of registered voters, it's quite likely that the Chron/Stein/Murray survey is asking people who may have very different opinions than the people who actually vote in Republican primaries. When you combine that with a high margin of error, the reported primary results have no statistical significance. They're worthless.

Neither Dr. Stein or Dr. Murray has replied to my emails. Nor has the Chronicle attempted to defend its survey. They ought to do so, instead of accepting the survey on blind faith. The Chronicle, as the only major newspaper that serves this district, has a strong responsibility to get things right, especially if they are going to feature this on the Sunday paper.

The Chronicle owes its readers a correction over the primary results from the survey. Those results simply cannot be counted on to be accurate with any degree of confidence.

More on the poll

2006-01-18T14:25:00.000-08:00

Mark Elam, who has written more than a few polls for Rep. Ron Paul, wrote in a comment to my original post:

I was polled in this survey and identified myself as conservative and Republican and was NOT asked who I would vote for in the primary...only in the general. Something is very suspicious about the whole thing. And yes, in doing a truly scientific survey, you would not identify the other candidates as "former congressman." That skews the results by giving the respondent information they might not otherwise have and by giving DeLay's opponents pretigious titles.

People talking about the Chronicle's DeLay/CD22 poll -- including on national cable

2006-01-18T13:25:00.000-08:00

** David Benzion at Lone Star Times breaks the news that Dr. David Hill will be on "Special Report with Brit Hume" tonight on Fox News Channel at 5pm Texas time to talk about the poll. Hill's interview has already been filmed, and Benzion was present for the interview, so he previews it.

Dr. Hill has a very good national reputation as a pollster, so it will be very interesting to see how he views the piece.

** Benzion also prints an email from Chronicle opinion editor James Gibbons, in which Gibbons appears to accept on blind faith assurances that the Chronicle's poll was reasonable. Given the number of people who are providing reasonable criticisms of the poll, it seems to me that the Chronicle editors ought to look into the poll themselves.

** National pollster Chris Wilson of Wilson Research Strategies criticized the survey's methodology and resulting coverage on KSEV yesterday.

** Sedosi thinks the Chronicle relies too much on Dr. Stein as their "house expert."

** Chris Elam (whose blog has been newly christened Texas Safety Forum) has had a few posts on this poll since even before the results were released.

Have I missed anyone? If you've written on this poll, let me know.

UPDATE: It wasn't on Special Report with Brit Hume tonight. I don't know why.

Quick, rough thoughts on the subsamples made available

2006-01-16T17:29:00.000-08:00

I'm in a bit of a hurry, so please forgive me if this isn't pretty (even for a blogger). However, here are the quick, rough thoughts I've jotted down after perusing the new crosstabs for the subsample of the Chronicle's poll:

1. They asked 560 people (the entire poll sample) whether they would vote in the GOP primary. They then screened by those people who said they were "likely" or "certain" to vote in the the Republican primary. (they didn't ask if they had voted in previous primaries, but whether they planned to...generally, this is not a very good screen, because people are much more likely to intend to vote than to actually vote)

2. 213 of the 560 sample said that they plan to vote in the Republican primary. This is 38%. 38% of REGISTERED voters sampled said they were likely to vote in a GOP primary? In 2004, 0.65% of registered voters voted in the Republican primary.

3. 50.2/39.9 was DeLay's favorable/unfavorable ratio among the 213 subset. 90.6/8.4 was President Bush's favorable/unfavorable.

4. 38.5 DeLay/ 1.4 Baig/ 5.6 Campbell/ 2.3 Fjetland was the primary numbers among the 213 subset. 52% didn't know/refused. That's high.

5. Among the 213 subsample (remember, these are likely GOP primary voters according to the poll) 39.4 DeLay/7.5 Lampson/ 14.6 Stockman/ 38.5 none/don't know/refused

6. Among the 213 subsample, when asked how they voted in 2004: 58.2 DeLay/9.9 Morrison/ 3.8 someone else/ 28.1 don't know refused.

7. 213 is a very small subset sample size. When you combine this with a relatively weak screen, it degrades the reliability of the numbers reported.

Big picture points worth further emphasis:

1. 38% of registered voters said they plan to vote in the GOP primary. In 2004, 0.65% actually voted in the GOP primary. That is a large discrepancy. This is a very weak screen.

2. Only 58% of likely voters in an upcoming GOP primary voted for DeLay against Morrison in 2004? Really?

3. The primary numbers combine a small sample size with a weak screen. This is not a recipe for a reliable poll. I continue to have a hard time taking the primary numbers seriously.

I have lots of respect for both Murray and Stein, but I think point #1 of my further emphasized points is very important.

These are just quick thoughts. Perhaps after further thought, I'll change my mind on some ponts. Since these are very quick, rough thoughts, I'm interested in further input.

DeLay vs World gets results!

2006-01-16T16:30:00.000-08:00

[If you don't get the title, it's a joke based on something Daniel Drezner often used to write.]

The Chronicle has posted more crosstabs which Professors Murray and Stein used to calculate the primary results.

I haven't yet been able to really examine the crosstabs, but my initial note is that the sample size is only 149.

[This post will be updated tonight or tomorrow morning as time allows.]

QUICK UPDATE: The Chronicle, Stein, and Murray should be commended for making these available.

Reax to Chron poll

2006-01-16T06:51:00.000-08:00

Kristen Mack gets reactions to the Chronicle's Sunday poll.

More on the Chronicle poll

2006-01-15T14:49:00.000-08:00

I've put in emails to Professors Stein and Murray as well as Chronicle political writer Kristen Mack, asking them where the 39% figure came from.

It's quite clear that Stein and Murray must have provided something else to the Chronicle and other news outlets which indicated the 39%, but the 39% simply doesn't appear and isn't calculable from the data provided.

Chronicle poll on district 22

2006-01-14T16:57:00.000-08:00

The Houston Chronicle has released a survey by Professors Murray and Stein. The full list of questions is here. While a few (but not exhaustive, by any means) crosstabs are here. Meanwhile, here is the graphic from the news article.

1/10-12. 560 REGISTERED voters, =/- 4.1% margin of error
party ID: 42% GOP, 27% D, 23% independent, 8% other

General election:
DeLay 22%
Lampson 30%
Stockman 11%

General election (including leaners):
DeLay 25%
Lampson 32%
Stockman 14%

The wording of this question very substantially overstates Stockman's support ("if the election were held today and the candidates were [rotate choices] Congressman Tom DeLay, former Democratic Congressman Nick Lampson and former Republican Congressman Steve Stockman, for whom would you vote?"). The way the question is worded makes it much more likely for Republicans to choose Stockman on this survey than on election day.

A campaign pollster would be unlikely to choose wording such as this, because the wording leads to the results being less predictive than they might otherwise be.

On to the primary numbers...

Primary:
DeLay 39%
Tom Campbell 6%
Mike Fjetland 2%
Pat Baig 1%

Where is the support for the numbers immediately above? This is from the graphic that accompanied the news article (the 39% is also mentioned in the news article), yet I can't find these numbers anywhere in the poll results or crosstabs.

What I can find is this:

Four candidates are running for Congress in the Republican primary being held in the 22nd Congressional District. If the election were held today, which of these candidates would you most likely vote for?
Tom DeLay (120) 21%
Pat Baig (13) 2%
Tom Campbell (34) 6%
Mike Fjetland (12) 2%
No Answer/Refused (381) 68%

Did this poll really ask EVERY person surveyed (including Democrats) who they were voting for the in Republican primary? That's what the results seem to indicate. If they asked every Democrat surveyed who they were voting for in the GOP primary, then that's sloppy surveying and makes the results of the primary question worthless.

It's totally bizarre. It's almost unfathomable for them to have asked every person surveyed who they were voting for in the Republican primary.

Things I've heard (mis)reported, based on this poll:
Channel 11's news report said that 91% now had a lower opinion of DeLay. Channel 11 also said that 47% think DeLay should resign. This is sloppy reporting by Channel 11. From the poll:

Has your opinion of Tom DeLay changed over the past year?
Yes (213) 38%
No (332) 59%
Don't Know/Refused (15) 3%

Do you now have a higher or lower opinion of Tom DeLay than you did last year?
Higher (7) 3%
Lower (194) 91%
Don't Know/Refused (13) 6%

Should Congressman Tom DeLay withdraw as a candidate for the 22nd Congressional seat?
Yes (263) 47%
No (226) 40%
Don't Know/Refused (71) 13%

So, based solely on the survey, only 35% (91% of 38) have a lower opinion of DeLay. Also, "withdrawing as a candidate" is much different from "resigning." It may seem like pedantry, but the two are definitely not equivalent in a poll.

Undersampled Republicans?
This survey appears to have undersampled Republicans. The district is about 62-63% GOP. According to the party breakdown in the survey, 42% is GOP, 27% D, 23%. When the independents (according to a question in the survey) are asked which way they leaned, then you end up with 36% D, 50% GOP, 10% "strict independent," with the remaining 4% being other. Given that the district has voted around 62-63% Republican in the past, this seems like a rather low number of Republicans.

There are a few ways to take this: 1) the survey undersampled Republicans, 2) the district is trending Democratic demographically (there is some very mild support for this), 3) district 22 voters are upset with Republicans and thus are identifying more with Democrats right now.

My guess is that the discrepancy is best explained by some combination of the above 3 possibilities, with option 1 being the most prevalent, and option 3 being also part of the reason.

Big picture points:

1. This isn't good for DeLay, although it's not really unexpected. The survey puts DeLay's favorable/unfavorable at 29%/60%, and it shows that many voters who have voted for him are considering other candidates because of his legal situation.

2. Unless DeLay's legal situation deteriorates, this is very likely the nadir of his poll numbers. There's no doubt that after the last few weeks, DeLay's poll numbers would be bad. But is this really the best time to take a poll, if you're attempting to predict the outcome of upcoming elections? No.

3. As far as I can tell, unless the Chronicle or Stein/Murray choose to clarify the primary results, it's very hard to take the primary results seriously.

4. If DeLay wins legally, he'll win re-election. If he loses legally, he won't win re-election. This guy, in the Chronicle's article, put it well:
"I go a lot on the way somebody talks and he doesn't give me warm and fuzzy feelings," said Robert Jones of Pearland, who has supported DeLay but rated him unfavorably in the Chronicle survey last week. Jones, who voted in the 2004 Republican primary and considers himself an independent, said he hasn't decided whom he will support this year.

"A lot depends on what happens with Tom DeLay," he said.

Yup. What happens in court will decide this election.

NYTimes on DeLay v. Lampson

2006-01-12T14:56:00.000-08:00

NYT:

Representative Tom DeLay is in the toughest re-election campaign of his 11-term House career, a battle that might be decided not only by his legal problems, but also by the Congressional redistricting plan he spearheaded in 2003.

The redistricting led to the loss of six Democratic seats in Texas in 2004, but it also shifted thousands of Democratic voters to strong Republican districts. Among those, Mr. DeLay's 22nd District added several Democratic-leaning parts of Galveston County; several political analysts estimate they may have raised the district's Democratic vote around 5 percent.

...

"I think there is a 50-50 chance DeLay won't even be in the race in November," said Calvin C. Jillson, a political scientist at Southern Methodist University in Dallas.

If he does stay in the race - and Mr. DeLay insists he will - he has the demographics of the 22nd District to bolster him.

"Despite everything, it's extremely difficult to dislodge Tom DeLay in a district with such a strong Republican base and a strong, straight-ticket Republican voting trend," said Ted Delisi, a Republican strategist in Austin.

As DavidNYC at Swing State Project noted, I already pointed out that Texas district 22 only got about 2-3% less Republican.

It's a pretty uphill district for a Democrat. As I see it, Democrats have two main hopes: 1) DeLay loses in court, or 2) DeLay is still in legal jeopardy (under indictment in Austin or by new indictment in DOJ).

Barring either of those, it's going to be a very difficult race for Lampson. DeLay is fully engaged in the campaign, he'll raise plenty of money, and he has the powers of incumbency.

Also, I think Cal Jillson is wrong. If DeLay were to drop out, he would have dropped out already.

It's worth pointing out: Lampson lost two years ago in a LESS Republican district as the incumbent, gaining only 43% to now-Congressman Ted Poe's 55%. Further, that district contained Jefferson County, which Lampson had represented for years as Congressman and county tax assessor.

Anti-DeLay ad not airing in Houston

2006-01-11T16:51:00.000-08:00

The anti-DeLay ad produced by several liberal groups is not airing in Houston. All four of the local network affiliates and Time Warner cable have decided either: 1) to not run the ad, or 2) to review the ad further.

I'm not particularly surprised. The line in the ad about Russian tycoons wasn't true or even close enough for attack ads.

It'll be interesting to see whether the left-wing groups choose to edit the ad, or whether they'll be happy with the free media publicity that they gained from announcing the ad.

EDIT: The ad, in WMV format.

UPDATE: Three of the four have chosen not to run the ad. One is still reviewing the ad.

2006-01-11T16:21:00.000-08:00

The AP profiles Tom Campbell, expected to be DeLay's most serious primary challenger:

While two of DeLay's challengers aren't considered to have much credibility — one is making his fourth attempt to unseat DeLay and the other has lived overseas much of her adult life — lawyer Tom Campbell of Sugar Land holds an impressive Republican resume.

Campbell worked on the presidential campaigns of Bob Dole and the elder George Bush, whose administration appointed him general counsel to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. A former Harris County Republican Party official runs Campbell's campaign.

...

Campbell, 50, said after "having a hard time voting for Tom DeLay" in the 2004 election, he looked for someone to challenge DeLay in 2006, but found no GOP career politician willing to take him on. So Campbell, who's never held a political office, decided to run himself, figuring it was an act of Republican loyalty to challenge the party's troubled standard-bearer.

"If we don't clean house in March, we'll lose the House in November," said Campbell, an environmental lawyer who drives a hybrid gas-electric car, not the standard wheels for Texas GOP candidates. "Sugar Land, Texas, is the epicenter of the national debate on how we conduct politics."

...

"Tom Campbell at least has Republican credentials," Fort Bend County GOP chairman Eric Thode said. "Having said that, it doesn't translate into one iota of support or money. He is 100 percent absolutely unknown in this county."

Campbell, a 12-year Sugar Land resident who has put his own money into the race, has less than $100,000 so far after announcing his candidacy in December, said campaign manager Mike Stanley, former general counsel to the Harris County GOP. DeLay had raised more than $1 million by the last reporting deadline in September.

DeLay also faces lawyer Mike Fjetland and retired teacher Pat Baig. The primary winner will face former U.S. Rep. Nick Lampson, a Beaumont Democrat who represented a district next to DeLay's for eight years until DeLay's redistricting plan put him in a new, less Democratic district. Lampson lost in 2004 to longtime Houston judge Ted Poe, a Republican.

While DeLay's campaign spokeswoman, Shannon Flaherty, has dismissed Fjetland and Baig with disparaging quips, she said DeLay welcomes Campbell to the race and to hearing his ideas.

"But he's going to have a tough time with local GOP support," Flaherty said. "He's got more than 30 years of catching up to do."

If there's a candidate who appears to possibly be able to raise the money necessary for the race, it's Campbell.

As I've said before, I think the indicator of whether DeLay is in trouble will be endorsements. However, Campbell, Fjetland, and Baig would need to raise enough money to capitalize if that were to happen.

DeLay joins Perry at Perry's Houston re-election announcement

2006-01-11T16:19:00.000-08:00

KHOU:

Wednesday, a surprise guest accompanied Texas Governor Rick Perry as he came to Houston to launch his re-election campaign.

Controversial Congressman Tom DeLay offered his support to Perry in what is turning into a ruthless race for governor.

Rick Perry brought his re-election waltz across Texas to Houston.

"Our jobs are at an all time high. Frivolous lawsuits are on the decline," said Governor Perry told the crowd.

Outside he attracted four young cheerleaders and five detractors who were old enough to vote.

"He's done nothing in education," a protester said.

In theory a republican running for re-election in a republican state should feel pretty comfortable.

"Our work isn't done, not by a long shot. Which is why I'm a candidate for governor in 2006," Governor Perry said.

But here's where it gets interesting.

Comptroller Carol Keeton Strayhorn is a Republican, though she's running against Perry as an Independent.

Only even as she says it on a television commercial, a close look reveals it says Republican under her name.

Perry didn't want to talk with 11 News.

But Congressman Tom Delay weighed in on independents.

"I think they're a novelty that Texans kind of enjoy and they make the race kinda funny," said Tom Delay, R-Sugar Land.

It's Carole Strayhorn, but plenty of people search for Carol, so I won't correct it for them.

Liberal groups plan anti-DeLay ad

2006-01-10T11:30:00.000-08:00

Two liberal groups are airing an anti-DeLay ad. No word on how large the buy is or what kind of buy.

The TV spot will point out connections between the Sugar Land Republican and former lobbyist Jack Abramoff, who pleaded guilty to corruption charges last week in a Justice Department investigation of his dealings on Capitol Hill.

...

The DeLay ad, along with one to be aired in the Ohio district of GOP Rep. Bob Ney, who has been implicated in Abramoff's schemes, is part of an effort to build support for cleaning up Congress, said Toby Chaudhuri, spokesman for the Campaign for America's Future.

His group, which receives significant funding from labor unions, and a watchdog group, the Public Campaign Action Fund, are sponsoring the ads and have run others attacking DeLay. They are expected to announce today an effort to pressure Congress to pass lobbying and campaign finance reforms this year.

...

The Campaign for America's Future "consistently attack(s) conservative leaders like President Bush and now they're getting involved in a district they probably couldn't point to on a map," DeLay spokeswoman Shannon Flaherty said. "While I don't know what the ad looks like, I can guess it will in no way depict the labor unions they're affiliated with or what they really support -- higher taxes, more government control, and the laughable leadership of Nancy Pelosi and Nick Lampson."

Both organizations are running the same ad. The thirty second spot features black text on a tv-static gray background, while recounting that DeLay was indicted for money laundering, and that Abramoff gave him money, before fading to corruption printed on the screen in capital black letters, with a call for DeLay to resign.

DeLay to chair NASA subcmte if he wins re-election?

2006-01-10T10:20:00.000-08:00

National Journal (subscription required):

DeLay has served on [Appropriations] for nearly two decades, beginning in his second term in Congress in 1987, although he took a leave of absence once he became majority leader at the start of the 108th Congress. He has retained his seniority despite the leave of absence, and he will rank sixth among Republicans when he rejoins the panel. Committee tradition is to determine subcommittee assignments based on full committee seniority, so he could conceivably oust one of the 11 subcommittee "cardinals." DeLay has said he would not do so, at least in the short term, although he would be primed to take over a subcommittee beginning in the 110th Congress if he wins re-election in November.

In 2007, DeLay would have a clear path to cardinal status, as Science, State, Justice, Commerce Appropriations Subcommittee Chairman Frank Wolf, R-Va., is term-limited. That subcommittee funds NASA's roughly $16 billion annual budget, a high priority for DeLay, who represents about 15,000 workers at the Houston-area Johnson Space Center. Before leaving the committee after the 107th Congress, DeLay served on the old VA-HUD panel, which funded NASA, as well as the Transportation Subcommittee, which has since been merged with housing programs. DeLay's spokesman said beyond rejoining the panel, DeLay has not discussed future subcommittee chairmanships.

An Appropriations cardinal can wield quite a bit of influence.

Out and about in Sugar Land

2006-01-09T20:40:00.000-08:00

Jason Embry's take on DeLay in the Statesman:

Mention U.S. Rep. Tom DeLay to Rich and Jill Maynard, and you won't initially hear about money laundering or scandal-plagued lobbyists.

Instead, their first reaction is to credit the local congressman with helping expand U.S. 59, the key artery connecting this ever-growing suburb to Houston.

"That's what affects the citizens more," said Rich Maynard, who works in construction management for a homebuilder.

Now that DeLay, R-Sugar Land, has surrendered hopes of regaining his post as leader of the Republican majority in the U.S. House, his next major political test will be to persuade voters here in Fort Bend and three other counties to send him back to Congress for a 12th term.

Residents in DeLay's hometown expressed everything from steadfast support to downright disappointment to a wait-and-see indifference Sunday, largely depending on their own party preferences.

Several people said they had no opinions to share because they were unfamiliar with his case, and even some who have followed it said it isn't clear to them why he's in trouble.

The rest of the article is simply quotes that Embry collected around town.

This article amuses me. As I've mentioned, Harris County now makes up more of district 22 than Fort Bend County. Why are there no quotes from people in Clear Lake?

Chronicle editorial

2006-01-09T20:38:00.000-08:00

The Houston Chronicle editorial board today turned their attention to DeLay's decision to step down as majority leader.

Court denies DeLay request

2006-01-09T17:24:00.000-08:00

Liz Austin -- AP:

The state's highest criminal court on Monday denied Rep. Tom DeLay's request that the money laundering charges against him be dismissed or sent back to a lower court for an immediate trial.

The Texas Court of Criminal Appeals denied the requests with no written order two days after the Sugar Land Republican announced he was stepping down as House majority leader. DeLay was forced to temporarily relinquish the post after he was indicted on money laundering and conspiracy charges in September.

DeLay, who denies wrongdoing, had been trying to rush to trial in Texas in hopes of clearing his name and regaining the position. His attorney, Dick DeGuerin, said they will continue to push for a quick trial because DeLay faces opposition in the March Republican primary.

"We'd like to get it over with before then, but it's not as crucial as it would have been if he were still in the running for his leadership post," DeGuerin said.

But DeLay's decision to abandon the powerful position in no way lessens his desire to clear his name, DeGuerin said.

"Tom DeLay's not going to plead guilty to anything, even spitting on the sidewalk," he said.

Mack on DeLay

2006-01-08T06:15:00.000-08:00

Chronicle politics writer Kristen Mack on DeLay:

U.S. Rep. Tom DeLay's departure from the House leadership shrinks his national stature, but he is still likely to win his party's nomination in the 22nd District and will be a formidable candidate for re-election, supporters and a key opponent said Saturday.

"He had to [resign his leadership post] for the betterment of the Republican Party and to the detriment of the Houston area," said Fort Bend County Republican Party Chairman Eric Thode. "There's never been a question about his re-election. It's only been fomented by those that are delusional."

...

In November, he also may face former Republican Rep. Steve Stockman, who has filed as an independent. Stockman will need to petition for a place on the ballot — which also will include the Libertarian Party nominee and possibly one other independent who has already filed. It is too late for anyone else to file as an independent.

But DeLay's biggest challenge comes from former U.S. Rep. Nick Lampson, who is unopposed in the Democratic primary.

Lampson and GOP leaders expect that DeLay easily will win his party's nomination over challengers Pat Baig, Tom Campbell and Michael Fjetland.

"Not one has any money, following or name ID," Thode said. "We are 100 percent behind DeLay and will continue to stand behind him."

In an unusual move last summer, the Fort Bend and Harris County Republican parties passed resolutions supporting DeLay. Traditionally party leaders remain publicly neutral about contests in their party primaries.

...

Primary opponent Campbell, a lawyer, said DeLay did the right thing by ending his bid for the House majority-leader position.

"Tom has become preoccupied with a whole series of issues that make it difficult for him to continue to serve in leadership positions," Campbell said. "If he hadn't made the decision, he would not have enough votes to become the majority leader. Tom's days as a Washington power broker are coming to a close."

DeLay should withdraw from the race and focus on his own issues while the Republican Party focuses on returning to its roots, Campbell said.

"We need to clean our house in March, and if we don't, we run the risk of losing the House in November," Campbell said.

Lampson, who expects DeLay to be his Republican opponent, said he anticipates a tough race but thinks the residents of the district are ready for new leadership.

..

The question now, [Rice professor Bob Stein] said, is whether residents of the district view DeLay's departure from the leadership as a significant political liability.

"The only thing that's ironic about it, is it leaves the state without a single member of the delegation, on either side, as part of the leadership," Stein said. "The very thing DeLay sought to provide, a place at the table for Texas, is all lost now. Texas is just as hurt by this as the Republican Party."

Here are my previous comments on the Republican primary.

The best indicator of DeLay's strength: if Republican clubs and officeholders endorse his opponents. Right now, none have endorsed any of DeLay's opponents that I know of. If that changes, it will be a sign of weakness.

In other words, money won't be the best indicator of DeLay's opponents' strength. I expect one of his opponents, probably Campbell, to be able to raise a reasonable amount of money, but I don't believe that to be as reliable an indicator.

DeLay's Sugar Land Rally

2006-01-07T14:45:00.000-08:00

With only an hour's notice, Tom DeLay held a rally at Town Square in Sugar Land after his announcement that he was resigning his leadership position for the rest of this session of Congress.

Chris Elam has pictures and a report from the rally. 75-80 is pretty decent for an hour's notice.